预算软约束对地区经济增长的影响及其门槛效应研究  

Study on the Impact of Soft Budget Constraints on Regional Economic Growth and Its Threshold Effect

作　　者：唐志军[1] 张佳佳 TANG Zhijun;ZHANG Jiajia(School of Business,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan,Hunan 411100,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学商学院,湖南湘潭411100

出　　处：《重庆科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期16-30,共15页Journal of Chongqing university of science and technology（social science edition）

基　　金：湖南省社会科学基金智库重大项目“现代化产业体系与区域协调发展‘两个战略’协调联动研究”(22ZWA002)。

摘　　要：在内外需求日益疲软以及地方债务规模较大的情况下,我国推出了一系列积极的财政措施,这要求政府增加举债规模。本研究从全国范围和东、中、西部地区出发,使用基准回归模型和门槛效应模型对地方政府预算软约束对经济增长的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现,地方政府财政预算软约束显著阻碍了地区经济增长,且二者之间存在显著的门槛效应。异质性分析表明,地方政府预算软约束对经济增长的负向作用会受到区域差异的影响。因此,地方政府应采取优化转移支付制度、促进融资平台的市场化转型、完善过度负债约束机制、转变官员政绩考核理念、因地制宜地制定差异性防范政策等措施稳定地区经济增长。China has introduced a series of proactive fiscal measures amidst increasingly weak internal and external demand and large-scale local debt,which forced the government to increase the size of its debt.This study empirically examines the impact of local government soft budget constraints on economic growth across China and its eastern,middle and western regions,using the benchmark regression model and the threshold effect model.It is found that local government soft budget constraints significantly impede regional economic growth,and there is a significant threshold effect between the two.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative effect of local government soft budget constraints on economic growth is affected by differences across regions.Therefore,local governments should take measures to stabilize regional economic growth by optimizing the transfer payment system,promoting the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms,improving the over-indebtedness constraint mechanism,changing the concept of officials’performance appraisal,and formulating differentiated precautionary policies according to local conditions.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 预算软约束 经济增长 门槛效应 异质性 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]