黄河流域水资源-生态-社会系统耦合协调分析  

Coupling Coordination Analysis of Water Resources-Ecology-Society System in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：卞宇航 屈博 江恩慧[2,3] 刘盈 BIAN Yuhang;QU Bo;JIANG Enhui;LIU Ying(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation,MWR,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [2]黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003 [3]水利部黄河下游河道与河口治理重点实验室,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《人民黄河》2024年第10期49-54,61,共7页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200404);国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2243601);河南省青年人才托举工程项目(2022HYTP023);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKF202114)。

摘　　要：充分认识水资源-生态-社会系统的耦合协调状态,对缓解黄河流域水资源和生态压力、实现流域可持续发展具有重要意义。选取2006—2021年黄河流域九省(区)的面板数据,基于压力-状态-响应理论(PSR)确定各子系统的评价指标,采用主成分分析法、耦合协调度模型分析水资源-生态-社会系统耦合协调状态及其时空变化特征,并利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型进行协调度预测。结果表明:1)黄河流域水资源-生态-社会系统综合评价指数整体呈上升趋势,各省(区)历年水资源子系统综合评价指数波动较大但整体向好,大多省(区)生态子系统发展情况较好,社会子系统发展在经济和人口大省有较大优势;2)各省(区)的水资源-生态-社会系统耦合协调度在研究期内均逐步上升,但各省(区)发展差距较大,2021年内蒙古和四川已达到良好协调,而宁夏刚迈入中级协调;3)预测显示,2022—2025年黄河流域整体水资源-生态-社会系统耦合协调度会继续上升至0.798,接近良好协调。Fully understanding the coupling coordination state of the water resources-ecology-society system is of great practical significance to alleviate the pressure on water resources and ecology in the Yellow River Basin and realize the sustainable development of the basin.This study focused on the panel data of the nine provinces within the YRB from 2006 to 2021.The evaluation indicators for each subsystem were selected based on the Pressure-State-Response theory(PSR).The principal component analysis method and the coupling coordination model were used to analyze the coordinated development level and its spatial and temporal characteristics of water resources-ecology-society systems.Additionally,the GM(1,1)gray prediction model was employed for development trend prediction.The results indicate that a)comprehensive evaluation index of water resources-ecology-society system in YRB has shown an overall upward trend.The water resources subvsystems of different provinces experience significant fluctuations over the years,but they are on the rise on the whole.The ecology sub-systems perform better in most provinces,while society sub-systems exhibit notable advantages in the large provinces of economy and population.b)Coupling coordination degree of water resources-ecology-society system has gradually increased among all provinces during the research period,although there remains a significant development gap between them.In 2021,Inner Mongolia and Sichuan Province have achieved good coordination level,while Ningxia has just entered the intermediate coordination level.c)It is predicted that the coupled coordination of water resources-ecological-social system in the Yellow River Basin will continue to rise to 0.798 in 2022-2025,which is close to good coordination.

关 键 词：水资源-生态-社会系统 PSR模型 耦合协调度 预测 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1