复杂体系可靠性结构分析与建模GERT网络技术  

GERT network technology for reliability structure analysis and modeling of complex system-of-systems

作　　者：方志耕[1] 华晨晨 陈顶 张靖如 张亚东 吴鸿华 FANG Zhigeng;HUA Chenchen;CHEN Ding;ZHANG Jingru;ZHANG Yadong;WU Honghua(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeromautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;Shanghai Electro Mechanical Engineering Institute,Shanghai 201109,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]上海机电工程研究所,上海201109

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2024年第10期3427-3436,共10页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72271124,52232014)资助课题。

摘　　要：体系各要素(系统)连接的或然性决定了其结构框架、联系逻辑和功能表现的复杂性。复杂体系可靠性结构分析与建模是解构表征其复杂特性的重要手段,是学术界长期以来的研究热点。然而,有关复杂体系可靠性结构、功能逻辑、计算框架的构建问题,却尚未有较好的解决方案。针对该问题,运用结构函数理论和图示评审技术(graphical evaluation and review technique,GERT)建立了一种新的复杂体系可靠性结构分析框架与建模方法。首先,基于“和联”思想建构其基于使命与任务生态联盟、行为演化的可靠性“和联”结构框架;其次,基于复杂体系要素的或然性逻辑联结关系,建立其可靠性结构GERT网络模型;最后,运用GERT解析算法原理,建立其可靠度计算模型,并考虑计算的复杂性,为该类问题提供GERT仿真(GERT simulation,GERTS)计算解决方案。以一反舰作战侦察复杂体系进行案例研究,结果表明所提方法有效且适应性强。The probability of linking elements(systems)of system-of-systems(SoS)determines the complexity of its structure framework,connection logic and function performance.Reliability structure analysis and modeling of complex SoS is an important means to deconstruct and represent its complex characteristics,which has long been concerned by academia.However,there is no good solution to the reliability structure,functional logic and computational framework of complex SoS.To solve this problem,a new analysis framework and modeling method of complex SoS reliability structure is established by using structure function theory and graphical evaluation and review technique(GERT).Firstly,based on the idea of“plus system”,it constructs its reliability“plus system”structure frame,which is based on the ecological alliance of mission and task and the evolution of behavior.Secondly,the reliability structure GERT network model is established based on the probabilistic logic connection relationship of complex SoS elements.Finally,the GERT analytic algorithm is used to establish the reliability calculation model,and the GERT simulation(GERTS)computation solution is provided for this kind of problem considering the computational complexity.A case study of an anti-ship combat reconnaissance complex SoS shows that the proposed method is effective and adaptable.

关 键 词：复杂体系 可靠性分析 结构函数 图示评审技术 

分 类 号：N945[自然科学总论—系统科学]