夏热冬暖地区住宅建筑运行阶段碳排放分析  

Current Status and Predictive Analysis of Carbon Emissions During the Operational Phase of Residential Buildings in Hot Summer and Warm Winter Regions

作　　者：贺芳 康宁 闵行博 王雯翡 张艳芳 HE Fang;KANG Ning;MIN Xingbo;WANG Wenfei;ZHANG Yanfang(China Academy of Building Research,Beijing 100013,China;National Engineering Research Center of Building Technology,Beijing 100013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国建筑科学研究院有限公司,北京100013 [2]国家建筑工程技术研究中心,北京100013

出　　处：《建筑节能（中英文）》2024年第9期136-141,共6页Building Energy Efficiency

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFE0208800)。

摘　　要：随着“双碳”目标的提出,国家对建筑业的碳排放提出了更高的要求。由于住宅建筑的碳排放量占整个建筑业的48%左右,因此其相关研究对于我国“双碳”目标的实现以及人民生活和社会发展有着重要的现实意义。以夏热冬暖地区住宅小区调查数据为基础,分析影响住宅建筑碳排放的主要因素,并采用SPSS 25对碳排放数据进行偏相关分析和岭回归分析,建立夏热冬暖地区住宅建筑运行阶段碳排放的回归模型。结果表明:回归方程预测得出的小区住宅年平均碳排取量与实测数值差值为3.4%;夏热冬暖地区住宅建筑运行阶段对碳排放影响最大的是户内人口数,其次是建筑面积,建筑朝向对碳排放的影响较小;在过渡季节住宅建筑碳排放量相对较低,炎热的夏季是夏热冬暖地区碳排放的高峰。对夏热冬暖地区住宅建筑碳排放现状的研究可为该区域住宅建筑提供设计方案和运行指导,同时也可为该区域住宅建筑碳排放评估提供参考依据。With the proposal of the“Dual-Carbon Goals”(realizing carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 in China),higher requirements are proposed for carbon emissions in the construction industry domestically,especially in residential buildings,which account for about 48%of the entire construction industry’s carbon emissions.Research on carbon emissions from residential buildings has significant practical significance for achieving the“Dual-Carbon Goals”,as well as for people’s lives and social development.Based on survey data from residential communities in hot summer and warm winter regions,this study uses SPSS 25 to conduct partial correlation analysis and ridge regression analysis on carbon emission data,and establishes a regression model for carbon emissions during the operational phase of residential buildings in hot summer and warm winter regions.The results show that the difference between the average annual carbon emissions predicted by the regression equation and the actual measured values for the residential community households is 3.4%.The number of residents indoors has the greatest influence on carbon emissions during the operational phase of residential buildings in hot summer and warm winter regions,followed by the building area,while the building orientation has a relatively small influence on carbon emissions.Residential building carbon emissions are relatively lower during the transitional seasons;the hot summer is the peak period for carbon emissions in hot summer and warm winter regions.The research on the current state of carbon emissions in residential buildings in hot summer and warm winter regions provides design solutions and operational guidance for residential buildings in this area.Additionally,it serves as a reference for evaluating carbon emissions in residential buildings in this region.

关 键 词：夏热冬暖地区 城市住宅建筑 碳排放 运行阶段 

分 类 号：TU201.5[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]