基于MaxEnt模型的云南省华山松潜在适生区研究  

Potential Habitat of Pinus armandii in Yunnan Province Based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：李华 覃阳平 罗春林 杨海方 侯文通 LI Hua;QIN Yangping;LUO Chunlin;YANG Haifang;HOU Wentong(Southwest Survey and Planning Institute of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Kunming 650031,China;Yunnan Jinshan Engineering Construction Supervision Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650051,China)

机构地区：[1]国家林业和草原局西南调查规划院,云南昆明650031 [2]云南金杉工程建设监理咨询有限公司,云南昆明650051

出　　处：《林业调查规划》2024年第5期24-31,共8页Forest Inventory and Planning

摘　　要：基于535个华山松物种分布点和33个环境变量数据,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件模拟华山松潜在适生区及影响其分布的主要环境变量,并通过受试者工作特征曲线对模型精度进行验证。结果表明,华山松MaxEnt模型十折交叉验证的AUC值为0.832,标准差为±0.019,表明模型模拟效果较好且具有较高的稳定性;影响华山松潜在适生区的主要环境变量为年均温、昼夜温差月均值、温度的季节性、最暖季降水量、最冷季降水量和土壤pH,其中年均温是影响华山松潜在分布最重要的环境变量,其适宜区间介于6.6~14.8℃;华山松潜在适生区在云南省主要分布于滇东北、滇中和滇西北地区,全省高、中、低适生区面积分别为65596、40142和46154 km^(2);曲靖市高、中适生区面积最大,迪庆州低适生区面积最大,西双版纳州无华山松适生区。Based on 535 distribution points of Pinus armandii and 33 environmental variables,the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and ArcGIS software were used to model the potential habitat of Pinus armandii and the main environmental variables affecting its distribution,and the model accuracy was verified by the receiver operating characteristic curve.The results showed that the AUC value of the ten-fold cross-validation of the Pinus armandii′s MaxEnt model was 0.832,with a standard deviation of±0.019,indicating that the model simulated better and had a high degree of stability.The main environmental variables affecting the potential habitat of Pinus armandii were annual mean temperature,mean diurnal range,temperature seasonality,precipitation of warmest quarter,precipitation of coldest quarter and soil pH,among which mean annual temperature was the most important environmental variable affecting the potential distribution of Pinus armandii,with a suitable interval ranging from 6.6 to 14.8℃.The potentially habitat areas of Pinus armandii in Yunnan were mainly distributed in northeast Yunnan,central Yunnan and northwest Yunnan.The areas of high,medium and low habitat areas in Yunnan were 65596,40142 and 46154 km^(2) respectively.The largest area of high and medium habitat was in Qujing City,the largest area of low habitat was in Deqen Prefecture,and there was no Pinus armandii habitat in Xishuangbanna Prefecture.

关 键 词：华山松 潜在适生区 MaxEnt模型 环境变量 

分 类 号：S791.241[农业科学—林木遗传育种] Q142.8[农业科学—林学] S711[生物学—生态学]