基于Lanchester方程和指数分析的弹药消耗预计方法  

Ammunition Consumption Prediction Based on Lanchester Equation and Exponential Analysis

作　　者：姜永超 史宪铭 JIANG Yongchao;SHI Xianming(Shijiazhuang Campus of Army Engineering University,Shijiazhuang 050003,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军工程大学石家庄校区,石家庄050003

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2024年第8期34-39,44,共7页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：军事类研究生资助课题;装备综合研究资助项目。

摘　　要：针对不同作战情形,以具体交战双方火力投入为基础,面向战术级弹药消耗,建立基于Lanchester方程的弹药消耗预计模型。在综合衡量弹药消耗各项影响因素的基础上,采用指数分析法进一步量化修正模型毁伤系数因子,通过Matlab仿真计算,预测出作战进程中的实时兵力损耗,进一步换算成即时弹药消耗,可得出作战进程中的弹药即时消耗规律,为弹药供应保障部门掌握作战进程中的即时消耗弹药情况提供支持。Aiming at different combat situations,based on the specific firepower engagement of the combat parties,aiming at the tactical ammunition consumption,the ammunition consumption prediction model based on Lanchester equation is established.On the basis of comprehensively measuring the influencing factors of ammunition consumption,the damage coefficient factor of the model is further quantified by exponential analysis method,and then the real-time force loss in the combat process is predicted by Matlab simulation calculation,which is further converted into real-time ammunition consumption,so that the real-time ammunition consumption law in the combat process can be obtained,which provides support for the ammunition supply and support department to grasp the real-time ammunition consumption situation in the combat process.

关 键 词：LANCHESTER方程 指数分析 弹药消耗预计 武器装备 

分 类 号：TJ43[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]