基于MaxEnt模型的华东地区香果树地理分布预测  

Prediction of geographical distribution of Emmenopterys henryi in East China based on MaxEnt model

作　　者：王磊[1] 周鹏[1] 陈亚辉 Wang Lei;Zhou Peng;Chen Yahui(Jiangsu Academy of Forestry,Nanjing 211153,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省林业科学研究院,江苏南京211153

出　　处：《江苏林业科技》2024年第4期41-47,共7页Journal of Jiangsu Forestry Science & Technology

基　　金：2023年中央财政林业草原生态保护恢复资金“野生植物(香果树)扩繁与迁地保护”。

摘　　要：香果树(Emmenopterys henryi)是中国特有的单种属珍稀濒危树种,也是第四纪冰川孑遗植物之一。华东地区香果树种群退化,江苏境内濒临灭绝。预测香果树在华东地区当前及未来时期的潜在适生区,揭示其地理分布格局变化的关键因子,对有效保护香果树野生资源具有重要意义。该研究以ENMeval软件包确定MaxEnt最优参数,利用54条华东地区现代地理分布记录和7个环境变量,基于优化后的MaxEnt模型预测华东地区香果树在现代、2040年、2060年和2080年的潜在分布区。综合Jackknife检验、置换重要值和贡献率,探讨制约其在华东地区分布的主导环境因子。结果表明,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)为0.801,说明MaxEnt模型预测结果良好;当前香果树在华东地区的中度和高度适宜分布区较小,主要分布于各省山地丘陵地区;在未来气候变化情景下,香果树适生区分布会有不同程度变化,华东地区香果树在未来20 a内分布区将进一步扩张,自2040年后迅速缩小,2080年后在平原地区消失。温度因子(年均温、平均日温差、最湿季均温、温度季节变化方差)和降雨因子(年降水量、最干季降雨量)均限制着香果树的分布。Emmenopterys henryi is a rare and endangered tree species endemic to China,being the sole species in its genus and a relict from the Quaternary glaciation.The populations of E.henryi in the East China region are degrading and near extinction in Jiangsu Province.Therefore,predicting the potentially suitable habitats in the East China region in the present and future periods,and revealing the key factors influencing change in its geographical distribution pattern,are of great importance for the effective conservation of the germplasm resources.In this study,the ENMeval package was used to determine the optimal parameters for the MaxEnt model.Based on 54 contemporary geographical distribution records and 7 environmental variables,we simulated and predicted the potential distribution areas in East China for the present,2040,2060,and 2080.The contribution rate,permutation importance,and Jackknife test were comprehensively used to explore the environmental factors influencing the suitable habitats in East China.The results of the MaxEnt model showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC value)was 0.801,indicating good prediction.The results indicated that the moderately and highly suitable distribution areas in East China were relatively small,primarily located in the mountainous and hilly regions of various provinces.The distribution area in East China will further expand in the next 20 years but will rapidly shrink from 2040 and potentially disappearing in plain areas after 2080.The combined results of the contribution rate,permutation importance,and jackknife test indicated that temperature factors(annual mean temperature,mean diurnal temperature range,mean temperature of the wettest quarter,temperature seasonality)and precipitation factors(annual precipitation,precipitation of the driest quarter)all constrained the distribution of E.henryi.

关 键 词：香果树 MaxEnt模型 地理分布 适生区 ENMeval数据包 

分 类 号：Q145[生物学—生态学] Q948.121[生物学—普通生物学] Q949.781.1