基于Hill函数的动态沉陷预测模型研究  

Research on dynamic subsidence prediction model based on Hill function

作　　者：蒋乾 杨向升 郭广礼[2,3] 华祥 张晓曼 陈延康 JIANG Qian;YANG Xiangsheng;GUO Guangli;HUA Xiang;ZHANG Xiaoman;CHEN Yankang(General Technology Group Engineering Design Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250031,China;NASG Key Laboratory of Land Environment and Disaster Monitoring,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]通用技术集团工程设计有限公司,山东济南250031 [2]中国矿业大学江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室,江苏徐州221116 [3]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《煤炭工程》2024年第10期260-267,共8页Coal Engineering

基　　金：通用技术集团科技重大专项资助项目(GTZD-2023-019)。

摘　　要：针对塌陷地动态治理亟需解决地面动态沉陷精准预测这一问题,采用理论分析和实测研究相结合的方法,从分析地面点动态沉陷过程为入手,明确了地面点动态沉陷过程中下沉量、下沉速度和下沉加速的变化规律,在此基础上,建立了符合地面点动态沉陷演化过程的基于Hill函数的动态沉陷预测模型,并采用济三煤矿5316工作面、东滩煤矿3307工作面和义能煤矿CG1301工作面的地表沉陷实测资料对模型进行了验证,验证表明各案例的相对中误差均可控制在3%以内,说明此模型能够很好的实现地面点的动态沉陷预测。In order to meet the urgent need for accurate prediction of ground dynamic subsidence for the dynamic control of subsidence land,theoretical analysis and field measurement are carried out in combination.Starting from the analysis of the dynamic subsidence process of ground points,the variation law of subsidence amount,velocity and acceleration of ground points in the dynamic subsidence process is clarified.On this basis,a dynamic subsidence prediction model based on Hill function is established,which conforms to the evolution process of dynamic subsidence of ground points.The model is verified by the measured data of surface subsidence in the 5316 working face of Jining No.3 Coal Mine,the 3307 working face of Dongtan Coal Mine and the CG1301 working face of Yineng Coal Mine.The results show that the relative mean error of each case can be controlled within 3%,indicating that dynamic subsidence prediction of the ground points can be achieved using the proposed model.

关 键 词：开采沉陷 动态预测 塌陷地 时间函数 动态治理 

分 类 号：TD325.1[矿业工程—矿井建设]