人口老龄化会影响货币政策传导效果吗?——来自信贷渠道的证据  

Does Population Aging Affect the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission?——Evidence from the Credit Channel

作　　者：杨铖 陈育民 YANG Cheng;CHEN Yumin(School of Finance,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融经济》2024年第8期29-45,78,共18页Finance Economy

摘　　要：本文运用包含随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR),聚焦于我国人口老龄化对货币政策调控宏观经济能力的时变影响特征研究。基于货币政策信贷传导渠道在我国的重要地位,以CC-LM模型为理论依据,分析了人口老龄化对货币政策信贷传导机制的影响。结果表明,人口老龄化降低了我国货币政策的有效性,具体表现为人口老龄化抑制了数量型和价格型政策工具对经济增长和通货膨胀的调控效果。人口老龄化通过对银行信贷供给环节以及企业信贷融资环节产生负面效应,削弱了货币政策信贷渠道效力,且该结论在更换人口老龄化衡量指标后仍成立。本文认为,我国货币政策的决策与制定应当充分考虑人口老龄化因素,并可通过丰富政策组合以及改革信贷传导机制等方法提升人口老龄化背景下的货币政策调控效果。This paper employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model(TVP-VAR)that includes stochastic fluctuations to focus on the time-varying impact characteristics of population aging on the macroeconomic regulation capacity of monetary policy in China.Based on the important role of the credit transmission channel of monetary policy in China,and using the CC-LM model as a theoretical basis,the paper analyzes the impact of aging on the monetary policy credit transmission mechanism.The results from the time-varying parameter VAR model indicate that population aging reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy in China,specifically manifested as aging suppressing the regulatory effects of quantity-based and price-based policy tools on economic growth and inflation. Population aging negatively affects both the bank credit supply and corporate credit financing, weakening the effectiveness of the monetary policy credit channel, and this conclusion remains valid even after changing the measurement indicators for population aging. This paper argues that the formulation and decision-making of monetary policy in China should fully consider the factor of population aging, and that the effectiveness of monetary policy regulation in the context of aging can be enhanced through a richer policy mix and reforms to the credit transmission mechanism.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 货币政策效果 信贷传导 TVP-VAR模型 系统GMM估计 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F822.1F832.4