顺北油气田断溶体油藏产量预测模型研究及应用  

Research and application of a production forecast model for fault-karst reservoirs:A case study of the Shunbei oil and gas field

作　　者：刘建军[1] 汪桂敏 于腾飞[1] 郭川[1] 钟伟[1] LIU Jianjun;WANG Guimin;YU Tengfei;GUO Chuan;ZHONG Wei(Exploration and Development Research Institute of Northwest Oilfield Branch,SINOPEC,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化西北油田分公司勘探开发研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《复杂油气藏》2024年第3期329-334,共6页Complex Hydrocarbon Reservoirs

摘　　要：Arps递减曲线方程是油气田开发初期产量预测中应用较为普遍的方法,基本是参考类似油藏拟合参数以定压差生产为开发政策指导进行产量预测,对于顺北断溶体油藏地层压力下降明显,且储集层在地饱压差内的非线性流动特征明显,存在唯一的非线性惯性阻力,无法通过描述线性流动特征的采油指数来表征,存在误差较大、产量预测结果单一的缺点。通过分析顺北油气田产量递减特征,基于物质平衡原理,构建动态储量模型,结合顺北油气田通用产能方程和产能评价指标成果,形成了新的断溶体油藏弹性驱产量预测方法,用于指导断溶体油藏弹性驱开发阶段的生产管理,有更高的适应性和准确率,也为断溶体油藏开展产能建设方案经济评价优化、指导油井开发政策奠定了基础、提供多开发政策方案决策支撑。The Arps hyperbolic decline equation is a commonly used method applied in production forecasting at the early stage of oil and gas field development,which refers to the fitting parameters of similar reservoirs to carry out the production prediction with a fixed pressure differential as a guide to development policy.For the Shunbei fault-karst reservoirs,formation pressure drops significantly,and the reservoir under the formation-saturation pressure differential exhibits significant non-linear flow characteristics,with a unique nonlinear inertial resistance.These features cannot be characterized by the oil recovery index describing the linear flow characteristics,which has the disadvantages of large error and single production prediction result.By analyzing the declining production characteristics of the Shunbei oil and gas field,constructing a dynamic reserve model based on the principle of material balance,and combining the results of the general production capacity equation and production capacity evaluation index in the Shunbei oil and gas field,a new production forecasting method of elastic drive in fault-karst reservoirs is developed.This method can be used to guide production management during the development stage of elastic drive in fault-karst reservoirs,with higher adaptability and accuracy.It also provides the basis for optimizing and guiding well development policy during the economic evaluation of capacity-building strategies in fault-karst reservoirs and offers support for making decisions on multiple development policy options.

关 键 词：断溶体油藏 弹性驱 物质平衡原理 产量预测 动态储量 

分 类 号：TE34[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]