新疆旅游收入的组合预测及发展研究分析  

The Combination Forecast and Development Analysis of Xinjiang Tourism Income

作　　者：马啸天 MA Xiaotian(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Kashgar University of China,844000,Kashgar,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]喀什大学数学与统计学院,新疆喀什844000

出　　处：《特区经济》2024年第9期112-115,共4页Special Zone Economy

基　　金：喀什大学校级科研项目“‘一带一路’背景下旅游主客互动推进文化润疆与富民兴疆的机制及其路径研究”((2022)1806)。

摘　　要：近年来,新疆的旅游业蓬勃发展,其带来的旅游收入已然成为衡量当地经济发展的一大关键指标。本文收集了2013-2022年新疆国内旅游收入的相关数据,通过建立GM(1,1)模型、采用灰色关联分析法对国内旅游收入相关影响因素进行了分析,最后结合相关程度较高的影响因素建立了多元线性回归方程,并围绕显著性分析结果给出相关建议。In recent years,Xinjiang’s tourism industry has developed vigorously,and its tourism income has become a key indicator to measure the local economic development.This paper collected the relevant data of Xinjiang’s domestic tourism income from 2013 to 2022.First,a GM(1,1)model was established,Second,grey correlation analysis was used to analyze the relevant influencing factors of domestic tourism income.Third,multiple linear regression equations were established combining the influential factors with high correlation degree,and relevant suggestions were given based on the significance analysis results.

关 键 词：旅游收入预测 灰色预测 组合预测 

分 类 号：G64[文化科学—高等教育学]