多源融合实况降水分析产品在大渡河流域的适用性评估  

Applicability evaluation of national multi-source precipitationanalysis product in Dadu River Basin

作　　者：叶瑶 黄瑶 宋雯雯 刘新超 YE Yao;HUANG Yao;SONG Wenwen;LIU Xinchao(Sichuan Province Meteorological Service Center,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象服务中心,四川成都610072

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2024年第10期12-17,共6页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室青年专项(SCQXKJQN202219);四川省气象服务中心创新团队(CXTD202303)。

摘　　要：为进一步提高大渡河流域水文预报水平,基于2019~2022年5~10月大渡河流域气象观测降水量和多源融合实况降水分析产品ART_1KM,采用相关分析、晴雨预报正确率、TS评分等方法评估了该降水产品在大渡河流域的适用性,并采用2020年8月14日四川盆地持续性强降雨事件进行检验。结果表明:ART_1KM在大渡河流域具有较高的参考价值,相关系数均大于0.99,平均值误差为-0.54~-0.13 mm,均方根误差为0.57~1.24 mm,平均绝对误差为0.32~0.75 mm,平均相对误差为-0.10~0.03,晴雨正确率均达到0.96以上。TS评分总体较高,尤其是下游各量级降雨TS评分可达0.95,空报率较低,全流域各量级降雨空报率在3%以内。漏报率随降雨量级增大而增大,上游和下游漏报率整体比中游低。在2020年8月14日降雨事件中,ART_1KM融合格点降雨产品的小时面雨量变化趋势与实况面雨量一致,峰值出现时间与实况匹配度高。In order to further improve the level of hydrological forecast in Dadu River Basin,based on the meteorological observation precipitation and national multi-source precipitation analysis product ART_1KM in the Dadu River Basin from May to October,2019~2022,the applicability of ART_1KM in the Dadu River Basin was evaluated.During the evaluation process,we used correlation analysis,rainfall forecast accuracy,TS score and other methods,and the conducted test by using the persistent heavy rainfall event in Sichuan Basin on August 14,2020.The results indicated that the ART_1KM had a high reference value in the Dadu River Basin,correlation coefficients were greater than 0.99,mean error ranged from-0.54 to-0.13 mm,root mean square error ranged from 0.57 to 1.24 mm,mean absolute error ranged from 0.32 to 0.75 mm,and mean relative error ranged from-0.1 to-0.03,the rainfall accuracy rate reached over 0.96.The TS score of ART_1KM was generally high,especially the downstream rainfall could reach 0.95.The false alarm rate of ART_1KM was low,the whole basin was controlled within 3%.The missing alarm rate of ART_1KM increased with the increase of rainfall magnitude,and the missing alarm rate in the upstream and downstream was lower than that in the middle reaches.During the rainfall event on August 14,2020,the hourly areal rainfall variation trend of the ART_1KM was consistent with the actual areal rainfall,and the peak occurrence time was highly matched with the actual situation.

关 键 词：多源融合实况降水分析产品 ART_1KM 面雨量 TS评分 大渡河流域 水文预报 

分 类 号：P338.8[天文地球—水文科学]