湖北省枝江市1965~2022年高温天气气候变化特征分析  

Analysis on climate change characteristics of high temperature weather inZhijiang City,Hubei Province from 1965 to 2022

作　　者：张盛超 高琪清 郑爽 姚虎 ZHANG Shengchao;GAO Qiqing;ZHENG Shuang;YAO Hu(Yichang Meteorological Bureau,Yichang 443099,China;Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone(Hannan District)Meteorological Bureau,Wuhan 430058,China)

机构地区：[1]宜昌市气象局,湖北宜昌443099 [2]武汉经济技术开发区(汉南区)气象局,湖北武汉430058

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2024年第10期40-43,共4页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

摘　　要：为探究枝江市高温天气气候变化特征,根据枝江市1965~2022年逐日最高气温和同期西太平洋副热带高压特征指数资料,利用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析等方法,分析了枝江市高温日数、极端高温和热积温的气候变化特征,并讨论了盛夏期高温日数与西太平洋副热带高压的关系。结果表明:近58 a枝江市夏季高温日数、极端高温和热积温均呈现出“V”字形的变化,从20世纪60年代开始持续下降,80年代中后期达到最低谷后呈现出持续上升趋势,在21世纪近20 a上升趋势非常明显。突变检验显示,高温日数在2004~2005年发生了气候突变。高温日数存在准4 a, 7~8 a, 12~14 a和18~20 a尺度的周期变化规律,在12~14 a时间尺度下高温日数的周期振荡最强。高温日数与西太平洋副高在盛夏期密切相关,与副高脊线在7月和8月存在显著的正相关。该研究成果可为枝江市高温天气预报预警提供参考依据。To explore the climate change characteristics of high temperature weather changes in Zhijiang City,based on the daily highest temperature and the characteristic index data of the Western Pacific subtropical high pressure during the same period from 1965 to 2022,linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall method,wavelet analysis and other methods were used to analyze the climate change characteristics of high temperature days,extreme high temperature,and thermal accumulation temperature in Zhijiang City.The relationship between high temperature days in the summer and the Western Pacific subtropical high pressure was discussed.The results showed that in the past 58 years,the number of summer high temperature days,extreme high temperature,and accumulated temperature in Zhijiang City all presented a"V"shaped change,continuously decreased from the 1960s to reaching the lowest in the middle to late 1980s and showed a continuous upward trend.The upward trend was very obvious in the past 20 years of the new century.The mutation test showed that the number of high-temperature days experienced a climate mutation from 2004 to 2005.The number of high-temperature days exhibited periodic variation patterns at the scales of 4 years,7 to 8 years,12 to 14 years,and 18 to 20 years,with the strongest periodic oscillation observed at the 12 to 14 years time scale.The number of high-temperature days was closely related to the western Pacific subtropical high during the mid-summer period,and there was a significant positive correlation with the subtropical high ridge line in July and August.The research results can provide a reference for high-temperature weather forecasting and early warning in Zhijiang City.

关 键 词：高温日数 极端高温 热积温 气候变化特征 枝江市 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]