重庆市雨水情监测预报“三道防线”建设与应用  

Construction and application of "three defense lines" for precipitationand flood monitoring in Chongqing City

作　　者：黎春蕾 邱鹏 刘娇 翟丹华 黄天称 LI Chunlei;QIU Peng;LIU Jiao;ZHAI Danhua;HUANG Tiancheng(Chongqing Hydrologic Monitoring Station,Chongqing 401147,China;Chongqing Meteorological Observatory,Chongqing 401147,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市水文监测总站,重庆401147 [2]重庆市气象台,重庆401147

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2024年第10期44-49,共6页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：重庆市技术创新与应用发展专项重点项目(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0132)。

摘　　要：山区中小河流洪水预报预见期短、预报难度大,重庆市按照雨水情监测预报“三道防线”建设要求,以延长中小河流洪水预见期为重点,完善了雨水情监测预报“三道防线”工作机制,提出涨水风险预警概念,建立了中小河流涨水风险等级和阈值标准,将洪水预警预见期从原来的1~6 h提前至24 h以上,突破了中小河流洪水预见期短、防御难度大的限制,实现了确定性洪水预报向涨水风险预警的转变,并将该工作机制成功应用于2023年万州“7·4”极端暴雨洪水防御中,提前41 h发布了涨水风险预警,减灾效益突出。研究表明:采用的预警方法可充分利用气象预报的预见期,有效延长山区中小河流洪水的预见期,确定的涨水风险等级和阈值标准基本合理,具有可操作性和推广价值,可为中小河流雨水情监测预报“三道防线”工作提供技术支持。It was difficult to predict the floods in small and medium-sized rivers in mountain areas because of the short forecast period.According to the construction requirements of the"three defense lines"of rainfall and flood monitoring and forecasting,in order to extend the flood prediction period for small and medium-sized rivers,Chongqing improved the working mechanism of the"three defense lines",proposed the concept of flood risk warning,established the flood risk level and threshold standards for small and medium-sized rivers,and advanced the flood warning forecast period from 1~6 hours to more than 24 hours,to broken through the limitation of short flood forecast period and great difficulty in flood prevention for small and medium-sized rivers,realized the transformation from deterministic flood forecasting to flood risk early warning,and successfully applied it to the flood prevention of Wanzhou"7·4"extreme rainstorm in 2023.The flood risk early warning was issued 41 hours in advance,with outstanding disaster reductions.The research had shown that the warning method used in this article can fully utilized the forecast period of meteorological forecasting to effectively extend the forecast period of floods in small and medium-sized rivers in mountain areas.Meanwhile,the determined flood risk level and threshold standards were reasonable,and had an operational and promotional value.The research results can provide a technical support for the"three defense lines"of rainfall and flood monitoring and forecasting works in small and medium-sized rivers.

关 键 词：洪水预报 中小河流 气象水文耦合 重庆市 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]