气象因子对河池市南方水稻黑条矮缩病发展的影响  

Impact of Meteorological Factors on Development of Southern Rice Black Streaked Dwarf Virus in Hechi City

作　　者：刘芳[1] 唐广田[2] 黄珩 黄维 张恩宁 LIU Fang;TANG Guang-tian;HUANG Heng;HUANG Wei;ZHANG En-ning(Hechi Meteorological Bureau,Hechi 547000,China;Guilin Meteorological Bureau,Guilin 541000,China;Liuzhou Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station,Liuzhou 545003,China;Nandan Meteorological Bureau,Hechi 547200,China)

机构地区：[1]河池市气象局,广西河池547000 [2]桂林市气象局,广西桂林541000 [3]柳州市农业气象试验站,广西柳州545003 [4]南丹县气象局,广西河池547200

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2024年第9期60-65,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2023GXNSFAA026515);河池市气象局气象科研计划项目(202306)。

摘　　要：利用河池市2005—2023年南方水稻黑条矮缩病(SRBSDV)的发病面积比例数据和期间气象数据,通过卡方分布的概率密度函数拟合流行周期内的发病趋势概率,分离出发病浮动概率,探究关键气象因子与发病浮动概率的相关性,并基于显著相关气象因子构建发病气象评价模型。结果表明:(1)2010年为河池市SRBSDV的暴发期,2010—2023年为SRBSDV的一个流行周期,发病概率符合自由度为3的卡方分布的概率密度函数;(2)发病浮动概率与12月—次年2月的平均气温、6—7月的降水量和相对湿度呈显著正相关,与安全播种期日序数负相关;(3)发病气象评价模型在预测暴发期的发病程度时预测偏轻,其他年份均预测正确,模型在一个流行周期内的定性评价效果较好。通过气象发病评价模型可定性评价流行周期内的发病程度,研究结论可为河池市的水稻病害防治工作提供参考依据。Based on the data of the proportion of southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus(SRBSDV)outbreak area from 2005 to 2023 and corresponding meteorological data,the probability of disease trend within the epidemic cycle was fitted using the chi-squared probability density function.The floating probability of disease occurrence was separated.The key meteorological factors were selected for correlation analysis with the floating probability of disease occurrence.The meteorological evaluation model for disease outbreak was constructed based on significantly correlated meteorological factors.The results indicate that:(1)2010 was the outbreak period for SRBSDV in Hechi City,with 2010-2023 constituting one epidemic cycle,where the probability of disease occurrence follows a chi-squared probability density function distribution with three degrees of freedom.(2)The floating probability of disease occurrence was significantly positively correlated with the average temperature from December to February,rainfall and relative humidity from June to July,and was negatively correlated with the ordinal number of safe sowing periods.(3)The model underestimated the degree of disease outbreak during predicted outbreak periods,but correctly predicted other years.It indicated that the model had a good evaluation effect within an epidemic cycle.The meteorological disease evaluation model could qualitatively evaluate the degree of disease within an epidemic cycle,which could provide a reference basis for rice disease prevention and control work in Hechi City.

关 键 词：南方水稻黑条矮缩病 河池市 流行周期 气象因子 评价模型 

分 类 号：S435.111.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]