干旱区葡萄生长对气候变化的响应及敏感性分析  

Response and Sensitivity Analysis of Grape Growth to Climate Change in Arid Regions

作　　者：吾米提·居马太 吉春容 沈伟 马玉平 马红 Wumiti·Jumatai;JI Chun-rong;SHEN Wei;MA Yu-ping;MA Hong(Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Ili Meteorological Bureau,Yining 835000,China;Xinjiang Xingnong Network Information Centre/Xinjiang Agro-meteorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,China;Wulanwusu Special Test Field base of National Integrated Meteorological Observation/Wulanwusu Ecology and Agrometeorology Observation and Research Station of Xinjiang,Shihezi 832000,China;Suqian Meteorological Bureau,Suqian 223800,China;Turpan Agrometeorological Experimental Station,Turpan 838000,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学,四川成都610225 [2]伊犁州气象局,新疆伊宁835000 [3]新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆农业气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [4]乌兰乌苏国家综合气象观测专项试验外场基地/乌兰乌苏生态与农业气象新疆野外科学观测研究站,新疆石河子832000 [5]宿迁市气象局,江苏宿迁223800 [6]吐鲁番农业气象试验站,新疆吐鲁番838000

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2024年第9期80-86,共7页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：新疆气象科研项目“葡萄霜冻灾害风险预警技术研发及服务应用”(ZD202302);新疆维吾尔自治区“三农”骨干人才培养项目“不同气候区鲜食葡萄春季霜冻灾害致灾机理与风险预警技术研究”(2023SNGGGCC006);新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目“林果气象灾害致灾机理与风险预警技术研发”(2023B02004-2)。

摘　　要：为科学有效地利用气候资源和合理调整种植结构,基于1991—2022年吐鲁番市葡萄的发育期、气候因子及其产量资料,分析了葡萄生长气候变化特征、发育期和产量的年代际差异,探讨了影响其变化的敏感性气候因子。结果表明,1991—2022年吐鲁番市年平均气温、年平均0和5 cm地温及年日照时数等均呈上升的趋势,年大风日数显著下降。葡萄发育期对年平均气温和年平均5 cm地温的响应变化更加明显,气候变化促使葡萄花蕾出现期、展叶期、果实成熟期提前,全生育期有所缩短。气候产量变化对4和7月的热量条件较为敏感,花蕾出现—开花期等生长季前期气候因子对葡萄气候产量具有显著的正效应,生长季后期气温越高、日照时数越多,越不利于葡萄气候产量的形成。In order to provide a scientific basis for the effective utilization of climate resources and the rational adjustment of planting structures,based on the data of grape developmental stages,climate factors and yield in Turpan City from 1991 to 2022,this study analyzes the characteristics of climate change,decadal differences of developmental stages and yield,and the sensitive climate factors influencing these changes.The results show that over the past 32 years,the annual average temperature,annual average ground temperatures at 0 cm and 5 cm depths,and sunshine hours in Turpan City have all shown an upward trend,while the number of windy days has significantly decreased.The developmental stages of grapes have shown more pronounced changes in response to air and ground temperatures.Climate change has led to earlier of bud appearance,leaf expansion and maturity stages,thereby shortening the entire growth period.Climate yield changes are more sensitive to thermal conditions in April and July.Climate factors for the early phases of growth,such as those from the bud appearance to flowering period,have a significant and positive effect on the climate yield of grapes,while higher temperature and more sunshine hours in the late phases of growth are detrimental to the climate yield of grapes.

关 键 词：吐鲁番葡萄 气候响应 发育期 产量 敏感性气候因子 

分 类 号：S663.1[农业科学—果树学]