新疆地方政府能力与乡村产业兴旺发展水平及其耦合度的影响因素分析  

Research on Development Level and Coupling Influencing Factors of Local Government Capacity and Rural Industrial Prosperity in Xinjiang

作　　者：孟荣耀 孟凯斌 杨立敏[1] MENG Rong-yao;MENG Kai-bin;YANG Li-min(School of Public Administration(Law School),Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Bazhou Water Resources Development and Investment Co.,Ltd.,Bayingol 841000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学公共管理学院(法学院),新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]巴州水利发展投资有限公司综合部,新疆巴音郭楞841000

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2024年第9期114-121,共8页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目“新时代推进新疆治理体系和治理能力现代化研究”(21ZD009)。

摘　　要：在推进中国式现代化进程中,政府能力与乡村产业发展紧密关联,采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型对新疆14个地州市在2012—2021年的地方政府能力和乡村产业兴旺2个系统的发展水平及其耦合协调度进行了测度分析,并结合面板Tobit模型对耦合协调度的影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:新疆政府能力和乡村产业兴旺基本呈逐年增长的状态;全疆两系统耦合协调度从轻度失调阶段转为濒临失调阶段,在研究期内,各地州市的耦合协调度均值达到基本协调阶段的地市为克拉玛依市、阿克苏地区和乌鲁木齐市;2021年达到初级协调阶段的只有克拉玛依市和阿克苏地区,其中,人口基数阻碍了两系统的耦合协调发展,人才水平和经济发展水平促进了两个系统的耦合协调发展。因此,应大力培育乡村新质生产力,提升人口质量,发展集体经济。In the process of promoting Chinese-style modernization,government capacity is closely related to rural industrial development.The entropy value method and the coupling coordination degree model were used to measure and analyse the development level and the coupling coordination degree of the two systems of local government capacity and rural industry prosperity in 14 prefectures and municipalities in Xinjiang from 2012 to 2021,and the panel Tobit model was to analyze the influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree.The results show that the government capacity and rural industrial prosperity in Xinjiang basically grow year by year.The coupling coordination degree of the two systems in the whole territory has changed from a mildly dysfunctional stage to a stage on the verge of dysfunctionality.During the study period,the cities and municipalities whose mean values of coupling coordination degree have reached the stage of basic coordination are Kelamayi City,Aksu Region and Urumqi City,and the only cities that will reach the stage of primary coordination in 2021 are Kelamayi City and Aksu Region.The population base hinders the coupling coordination development of the two systems,while the talent level and economic development level promote the coupling coordination development of the two systems.Therefore,we should cultivate new quality productivity in the countryside,improve the quality of the population,and develop the collective economy.

关 键 词：政府能力 乡村产业兴旺 耦合协调度模型 TOBIT模型 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]