产能到位率计算方法的发展完善及其在大庆油田的应用  

Development and Improvement of Calculation Method for Productivity Implementation Rate and Its Application in Daqing Oilfield

作　　者：桂东旭[1] GUI Dongxu(Exploration and Development Research Institute of Daqing Oilfield,Daqing,Heilongjiang 163712,China)

机构地区：[1]大庆油田有限责任公司勘探开发研究院,黑龙江大庆163712

出　　处：《海洋石油》2024年第3期67-70,共4页Offshore Oil

基　　金：国家科技重大专项“大庆油气持续有效发展关键技术研究与应用”(2016E-0205)。

摘　　要：产能到位率是原油产能建设过程中油藏工程方案、开发规划方案编制中的重要指标。大庆油田产能建设对象地质条件和地面条件持续变差,传统产能到位率计算方法存在不足,难以满足复杂多变形势下的指标预测需求。通过分析近年来分类产能指标变化规律,结合原油开发规划编制工作的实际需求,拓展了产能到位率的内涵,创新性地提出计划产能到位率、实建产能到位率的概念及计算方法。结果表明:在年初规划阶段和年底配产阶段分别应用计划产能到位率、实建产能到位率指标预测新建产能的第二年产油量,预测符合率可达到95%以上,较好地指导了新建产能在第二年产油量的预测。研究成果为年度产能建设规划优化提供重要参考,为年度及中长期产量精准测算提供重要依据。The productivity implementation rate is an important indicator in the preparation of reservoir engineering scheme and development planning scheme in the process of crude oil production capacity construction.The geological conditions and ground conditions of the production capacity construction object of Daqing Oilfield continue to deteriorate,and the traditional calculation method for the productivity implementation rate is insufficient,which is difficult to meet the demand of indicator prediction in complex and changeable situations.By analyzing the changes of classified capacity indicators in recent years and combining with the actual needs of crude oil development planning,the connotation of productivity implementation rate is expanded,and the concepts and calculation methods of planned productivity implementation rate and actual productivity implementation rate are creatively put forward.The results indicate that in the planning stage at the beginning of the year and the production allocation stage at the end of the year,the indicators of planned productivity implementation rate and actual productivity implementation rate are perspectively applied to predict the second year oil production of new production capacity,with the prediction accuracy rate of over 95%,which effectively guides the prediction of oil production of new production capacity in the second year.The research results provide important references for the optimization of annual production capacity construction planning,and provide important basis for accurate estimation of annual and medium to longterm production.

关 键 词：产能建设 开发规划 产能到位率 产油量 预测 

分 类 号：TE52[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]