中国饲料添加剂市场价格波动影响因素的实证研究  

An empirical study on influencing factors of market price fluctuation of feed additives in China

作　　者：高秋瑾 GAO Qiu-jin

机构地区：[1]郑州科技学院,河南郑州450064

出　　处：《饲料研究》2024年第16期182-185,共4页Feed Research

基　　金：河南省科技厅项目(项目编号:162400410541)。

摘　　要：饲料添加剂的价格波动对饲料工业的发展和养殖者所提供饲料产品的质量有着直接的影响。此外,它在提升养殖者的收入以及推动经济和社会的稳定发展中扮演着至关重要的角色。选择2010—2023年168个月度的数据,使用向量自回归模型,从饲料添加剂自身价格和内外部层面探索影响饲料添加剂市场价格波动的主要因素。结果显示,饲料添加剂价格受自身影响最大,在第9期仍具有64.19%的贡献率。外部因素中,对饲料添加剂价格影响较明显的因素依次为饲料需求量及养殖业相关政策。其中,第9期饲料需求量对当月饲料添加剂价格具有7.54%的影响。内部因素中,对饲料添加剂价格波动影响较明显的2个因素依次是原材料生产价格及原材料批发价格。其中,第9期原材料生产价格对饲料添加剂价格具有9.04%的影响。研究表明,中国饲料添加剂市场价格波动除受自身影响最大外,其余因素的影响排序由大到小依次为原材料生产价格、饲料需求量、原材料批发价格、养殖业相关政策、原材料运输价格、季节及国内外期货。The price fluctuation of feed additives has a direct impact on the development of feed industry and the quality of feed products of farmers.Additionally,it plays a vital role in enhancing the income of breeders and in propelling the stable development of the economy and society.This article selects 168 monthly data from 2010 to 2023 and uses a vector autoregressive model to explore the main factors affecting the market price fluctuation of feed additives from the price of feed additives themselves and the internal and external levels.The results showed that the price of feed additives is most affected by itself,and the contribution rate is still 64.19%in the 9th period.In terms of external factors,the most significant influences on the price of feed additives are feed demand and related policies of breeding industry.Among them,the demand for feed in the 9th period has 7.54%impact on the price of feed additives in the month.In terms of internal factors,the two factors that have the most obvious impact on the price fluctuation of feed additives are the production price of raw materials and the wholesale price of raw materials.Among them,the production price of raw materials in the 9th period has a 9.04%impact on the price of feed additives.The study shows that the market price fluctuations of feed additives in China is most affected by itself,and the other influencing factors are in order of production prices of raw materials,feed demand,wholesale prices of raw materials,policies related to the breeding industry,transportation prices of raw materials,seasonal factors,and domestic and foreign futures.

关 键 词：价格波动 饲料添加剂市场价格 向量自回归模型 饲料需求量 

分 类 号：S816.7[农业科学—饲料科学]