亚热带江河源头区径流对土地利用及气候变化的响应研究  

Study on the Response of Runoff to Land Use and Climate Change in Subtropical River Headwater

作　　者：张吉洪 姚正红 李俊杰 万炜[3,4] 朱锦奇[3,4] 郑博福 Zhang Jihong;Yao Zhenghong;Li Junjie;Wan Wei;Zhu Jinqi;Zheng Bofu(School of Infrastructure Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Geophysical&Geochemical Exploration Brigade of Jiangxi,Nanchang 330009,China;School of Resources&Environment,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resources Utilization,Ministry of Education/Jiangxi Institute of Ecological Civilization,Nanchang University,Nanchang,330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学工程建设学院,南昌330031 [2]江西省地质局物化探大队,南昌330009 [3]南昌大学资源与环境学院,南昌330031 [4]鄱阳湖环境与资源利用教育部重点实验室/南昌大学江西生态文明研究院,南昌330031

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第6期55-66,73,共13页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：江西省重点研发计划项目(20223BBG74S01,20223BBG71013);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42301091)。

摘　　要：[目的]厘清不同情景下亚热带江河源头区的径流量变化,为流域水资源的综合管理调控和水资源开发利用提供决策依据,并为亚热带江河源头区生态安全保障提供科学参考。[方法]以赣江主要源头区域的桃江流域为研究区,采用2000—2019年的气象及降水数据开展SWAT模型的率定与验证,进而模拟了不同土地利用与气候变化及其组合情景下的径流响应特征。[结果]SWAT模型对于桃江流域具有良好的适用性,模拟径流与实测径流拟合效果良好。建设发展情景下的产流能力最强,生态保护情景下的产流能力最弱。不同季节的产流能力存在明显差异,丰水期各情景产流能力差异较大,而枯水期不同情景地表径流量差异较小。15种气候变化情景中,流域径流量与降水量呈正相关(p<0.01),与温度呈负相关。相较于气温变化,降水量的变化对桃江流域的径流量影响更大,是径流量变化的主要影响因素。L_(1)&C_(5)情景(耕地扩张情景,温度不变,降水量增加20%)下的年均径流量最大,达267.15 m^(3)/s。[结论]土地利用对于径流变化影响相对较弱,气候因素在桃江流域径流变化中起主要作用。[Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the runoff changes in the subtropical river headwaters under different scenarios,to provide decision-making basis for the comprehensive management and regulation of water resources in the basin and the development and utilization of water resources,and to provide scientific reference for the ecological security guarantee in the subtropical river headwaters.[Methods]Taojiang River Basin,the main source area of the Ganjiang River,was taken as the research area.SWAT model was constructed.The model was calibrated and validated by using meteorological and precipitation data from 2000 to 2019,and then the runoff response characteristics under different land use and climate change and their combination scenarios were simulated.[Results]SWAT model has good applicability to the Taojiang River Basin,and the fitting effect between simulated runoff and measured runoff is good.The runoff capacity under the construction and development scenario is the strongest,and the runoff capacity under the ecological protection scenario is the weakest.There are obvious differences in runoff capacity in different seasons.The runoff capacity of each scenario in the wet season is quite different,while the difference of surface runoff in different scenarios in the dry season is small.In the 15 climate change scenarios,the runoff is positively correlated with precipitation(p<0.01)and negatively correlated with temperature.Compared with the change of temperature,the change of precipitation has a greater impact on the runoff flow in Taojiang River Basin,which is the main influencing factor on runoff change.The average annual runoff under L_(1)&C_(5) scenario(cultivated land expansion scenario,temperature unchanged,precipitation increased by 20%)is the largest,reaching 267.15 m^(3)/s.[Conclusion]In this study,land use has a weak impact on runoff change,and climate factors play a major role in runoff change in Taojiang River Basin.

关 键 词：亚热带江河源头区 径流 土地利用变化 气候变化 SWAT模型 桃江流域 

分 类 号：K903[历史地理—人文地理学] P343[天文地球—水文科学]