基于PLUS模型的黄河中游多沙粗沙区土地利用变化模拟及驱动力分析  

Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Land Use Change in the Sandy and Coarse Region of the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River Based on PLUS Model

作　　者：杜洲 牛健植[1,2,3,4] 樊登星 张卓佩[1] 杨智勇 Du Zhou;Niu Jianzhi;Fan Dengxing;Zhang Zhuopei;Yang Zhiyong(School of Soil and Water Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of State Forestry Administration on Soil and Water Conservation and Desertification Combating,Beijing 100083,China;Engineering Research Center of Forestry Ecological Engineering,Ministry of Education,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京100083 [2]林木资源高效生产全国重点实验室,北京100083 [3]水土保持与荒漠化防治国家林业局重点实验室,北京100083 [4]北京林业大学林业生态工程教育部工程研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第6期309-318,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“风水复合侵蚀产沙模拟与治理措施优化配置技术”(2022YFF1300804)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析黄河中游多沙粗沙区土地利用演变规律及其驱动因素,探究不同情景下区域土地利用变化趋势,以期为保障区域生态安全及未来土地利用合理规划提供依据。[方法]基于2000年、2010年、2020年3期土地利用数据,进行黄河中游多沙粗沙区土地利用变化特征及驱动力分析,并结合多情景设定,利用PLUS模型预测了2030年3种不同情景下区域土地利用空间格局。[结果]2000—2020年研究区土地利用变化总体趋势体现为耕地持续减少,林地、草地先增加后减少,水域和未利用地先减少后增加,建设用地持续增加;PLUS模型对2000—2020年区域土地利用变化的驱动力挖掘效果较好,其中建设用地的扩张受距县政府距离、GDP和距铁路距离等社会经济因子影响为主;自然发展情景下,耕地、林地和草地面积有所下降,水域、建设用地和未利用地的面积上升,经济建设情景下,建设用地大幅增加,对其他各类用地侵占作用显著,生态保护情景下,建设用地扩张得到有效约束,主要转入草地,面积缩减。林地、草地和水域面积明显上升,区域生态用地显著增加。[结论]不同发展情景下,黄河中游多沙粗沙区土地利用格局变化差异显著,区域未来土地利用规划应以可持续发展方式为导向,结合具体发展目标制定政策,注重典型生态脆弱区生态保护与经济建设的协调发展。[Objective]The aims of this study are to analyze the pattern of land use evolution and its driving factors in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River,to explore the trend of regional land use change under different scenarios,and to provide a basis for guaranteeing regional ecological security and rational land use planning in the future.[Methods]Based on three phases of land use data in 2000,2010 and 2020,the characteristics and driving forces of land use change in the sandy and coarse region of the middle reaches of the Yellow River were analyzed.Combined with multi-scenario setting,the PLUS model was used to predict the regional land use spatial pattern in 2030 under three different scenarios.[Results]The general trend of land use change in the study area during 2000—2020 was that cultivated land continued to decrease,forestland and grassland increased first and then decreased,water area and unused land decreased first and then increased,and construction land continued to increase.The PLUS model had a good effect on the driving force of regional land use change from 2000 to 2020,and the expansion of construction land was mainly affected by social and economic factors such as distance from county government,GDP and distance from railway.Under the natural development scenario,the area of cultivated land,forest land and grassland has decreased,while the area of water area,construction land and unused land has increased;under the economic construction scenario,construction land has increased significantly,which has a significant effect on the encroachment of other types of land;under the ecological protection scenario,the expansion of construction land has been effectively restricted,and the area is mainly transferred to grassland.The area of forestland,grassland and water area increases significantly,and the regional ecological land area increases significantly.[Conclusion]Under different development scenarios,the changes of land use pattern in the sandy and coarse region of the mid

关 键 词：PLUS模型 土地利用变化 多情景模拟 多沙粗沙区 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]