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作 者:刘雅楠 吴琼[2] 李勇 LIU Ya′nan;WU Qiong;LI Yong(Jiangxi Institute of Meteorological Science,Nanchang 330046,China;Jiangxi Climate Center,Nanchang 330046,China)
机构地区:[1]江西省气象科学研究所,江西南昌330046 [2]江西省气候中心,江西南昌330046
出 处:《气象与环境学报》2024年第4期37-45,共9页Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基 金:江西省气象局省所改革专项(JX2023Z11)和江西省气象局面上项目(JX2023M20)共同资助。
摘 要:选用地面观测、NCEP再分析等资料,应用青藏高原积雪面积距平指数和大气环流指数,对比实况与气候动力模式结果,对2022年5月江西省降水量气候预测进行评估,并分析预测信号及其应用情况。结果表明:2022年5月气候动力模式“江西省南部降水偏多”的总体降水气候特征预测较为准确,且“江西省存在降水集中期,部分地区有洪涝发生”的预测与实况相一致,5月降水过程的预报基本准确,但江西省北部以及中部地区的旱情预报等级偏小。前期预测综合了拉尼娜事件、前一年冬季冬青藏高原积雪异常偏多和印度洋海温变化等多个预测信号对2022年5月江西省降水量气候趋势的影响,但低估了拉尼娜事件对该月江西省降水的影响,高估了高原积雪异常偏多对江西北部降水的影响,导致出现预测偏差。Based on datasets from ground observations and NCEP reanalysis,the climate prediction derived from the dynamic model was evaluated towards the precipitation in Jiangxi province in May of 2022,using the Tibetan Plateau snow cover anomaly index and atmospheric circulation index.Additionally,the predictive signals and their applications were also analyzed.The results showed that the model prediction of"above-normal precipitation in southern Jiangxi province"is generally accurate,and the prediction of"a concentration period of precipitation in Jiangxi province,with some areas experiencing floods"matches the reality.The precipitation processes in May are predicted well,though the drought severity in northern and central areas is underestimated to some extent.Prediction at the early stage combines the impacts of several predictive signals,including the La Ni a event,the excessive snow cover anomaly over Tibetan Plateau in the preceding winter,and the sea surface temperature changes in Indian Ocean,on the precipitation trend in May of 2022 for Jiangxi province.However,it underestimates the influence of La Ni a on the whole area and overestimates the impact of the excessive snow cover anomaly over Tibetan Plateau on the northern area,resulting in certain prediction deviations.
分 类 号:P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
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