2017—2021年西藏高原SWC-WARMS模式降水预报产品的检验与评估  

Validation and evaluation of the SWC-WARMS model products for precipitation forecasts on the Xizang Plateau from 2017 to 2021

作　　者：罗布坚参 吉律 边玛拉珍 央吉次仁 次仁白玛 衡志炜[2] LUOBU Jiancan;JI Lv;BIANMA Lazhen;YANGJI Ciren;CIREN Baima;HENG Zhiwei(Tibet Autonomous Region Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Lhasa 540000,China;Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration/Key Laboratory of Rainstorm and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气象灾害防御技术中心,西藏拉萨540000 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害省重点实验室,四川成都610072

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2024年第4期46-53,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：青藏高原第二次科考项目(2019QZKK0105);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J031)共同资助。

摘　　要：选用2017—2021年西藏高原39个观测站24 h降水资料,对SWC-WARMS模式降水预报产品按照数值预报业务检验评估指标进行检验与评估。结果表明:西藏高原降水主要集中在暖季(降雨时段),以小雨为主。SWC-WARMS模式24 h累积降水预报年平均准确率、命中率和成功率分别为78%、83%和60%,预报效果较好,但整体的空报率和偏差均较大。西藏高原暖季的小雨及以上TS平均值为0.63,中雨及以上TS平均值较小,其空报率、漏报率随海拔高度落差增大而增大;冷季(降雪时段)降水日数较少,TS小于暖季、空报率高,但个别区域的SWC-WARMS模式大量级降雪预报TS超过0.30。Using 24-hour precipitation data from 39 observation stations on the Xizang Plateau from 2017 to 2021,the SWCWARMS model products of precipitation forecasts were evaluated according to the operational numerical prediction evaluation metrics.The results showed that precipitation on the Xizang Plateau is mainly concentrated in the warm season(rainfall period),with light rain as the dominant form.The annual averaged accuracy rate,hit rate,and success rate of the 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecast from the SWC-WARMS model are 78%,83%,and 60%,respectively,indicating considerable prediction performance,which are however characterized by relatively high false alarm rate and bias.The averaged TS score for light rain and above during the warm season is up to 0.63,while the TS for moderate rain and above is relatively low.The false alarm rate and missing alarm rate increase with rising altitude differences.During the cold season(snowfall period),the number of precipitation days is fewer,with lower TS score and higher false alarm rate than those in the warm season.However,in certain regions,the TS for largethreshold snowfall forecasts reaches 0.30 in the SWC-WARMS model.

关 键 词：TS评分 空报率 漏报率 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]