河北省马铃薯不同产量预报方法对比分析  

Comparative analysis of potato yield forecasting for different methods in Hebei province

作　　者：薛思嘉 王朋朋 魏瑞江[1,2,4] 王云秀 杨梅 刘园园 XUE Sijia;WANG Pengpeng;WEI Ruijiang;WANG Yunxiu;YANG Mei;LIUYuanyuan(Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;CMA Xiong′an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory,Xiong′an New Area 071802,China;Chengde Meteorological Service,Chengde 067000,China;Hebei Meteorological Science Research Institute,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,河北石家庄050021 [2]中国气象局雄安大气边界层重点开放实验室,河北雄安新区071802 [3]承德市气象局,河北承德067000 [4]河北省气象科学研究所,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2024年第4期123-130,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：河北省气象局项目(21ky13)资助。

摘　　要：选用1982—2022年河北省17个基本气象观测站逐日资料、马铃薯产量数据以及生育期资料,应用3 a滑动平均法、5 a滑动平均法、五点二次平滑法、Hodrick-Prescott滤波法和二次指数平滑法对马铃薯产量进行分离计算,应用关键气象因子法和气候适宜度法对马铃薯产量进行模拟和检验,分析拟合产量与实际产量的相关系数、均方根误差以及预报准确率等。结果表明:5种产量分离方法的趋势产量总体变化较为一致;气象产量年际波动较大,各气象产量间差异也较大。在基于关键气象因子法和气候适宜度法的产量预报中,均为二次指数平滑产量分离法最好,HP滤波法次之,3 a滑动平均法较差。Utilizing daily meteorological data from 17 basic meteorological observation stations,along with potato yield and growth period data in Hebei province from 1982 to 2022,we compared potato yield of separation calculation using methods of three-year moving average,five-year moving average,five-point quadratic smoothing,Hodrick-Prescott filtering,and quadratic exponential smoothing,and applied the key meteorological factor method and the climate suitability method to simulate and validate potato yield,analyzing the correlation coefficients,root mean square errors,and forecast accuracy between the fitted and actual yields.The results indicated that all methods can fit the yield trend well.Meteorological yield exhibits significant inter-annual variability,with considerable differences among the yield separated by the different methods.For yield forecasting,the quadratic exponential smoothing method performs the best,followed by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering method,while the 3-year moving average method is the least effective.

关 键 词：产量分离 趋势产量 气象产量 产量预报 

分 类 号：S532[农业科学—作物学] P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]