进入后工业化时代的宏观经济政策创新  

Innovation in Macroeconomic Policy in the Post-Industrial Era

作　　者：陈炳才 Chen Bingcai(Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(National Academy of Governance),Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院),北京100875

出　　处：《开放导报》2024年第5期83-93,共11页China Opening Journal

摘　　要：当前,从我国经济持续波动性、曲折式增长,以及出现的产业结构服务业化、城镇化步伐减慢、人口趋向下降现象来看,我国经济发展可能进入了后工业化时代。其特征是:经济增长走向现代化增长、增长的结构性特征更突出、难以出现轮动式结构性增长、财政货币政策的作用趋向弱化等。为保持我国经济未来可持续适度增长,需要进行若干方面的政策创新:一是探索中国推动全球化发展的新路径,加强全球基础设施建设和互联互通等;二是创新财政政策,推动土地出租和入股,实行将住房租赁化,将税收减免和财政补贴等基金化、股权化等;三是创新货币、金融监管政策,保持汇率稳定和升值,提升人民币信用,倡导主权货币跨境履行货币职能,对金融风险实时监管等;四是推动科技创新,利用组织优势,进行分工和专业化协作、系统集成,走科学化、数字化制造之路,拆分行为动作、思维步骤,走向智能化制造。Currently,based on China's persistent volatile and erratic economic growth,as well as the emerging phenomena of a service-oriented industrial structure,decelerating urbanization,and a declining population trend,it is conceivable that China's economic development may have entered the post-industrial era.Characteristics of this era include economic growth transitioning towards modernization,more prominent structural features in growth,difficulties in achieving rotational structural growth,and a weakening role of fiscal and monetary policies.To maintain a sustainable and moderate growth rate for China's economy in the future,policy innovations are needed in several areas:firstly,exploring new paths for China to promote globalization,strengthening global infrastructure construction and connectivity,etc.;secondly,innovating fiscal policies by promoting land leasing and equity participation,implementing housing rental policies,and converting tax reliefs and fiscal subsidies into funds and equity stakes;thirdly,innovating monetary and financial regulatory policies by maintaining stable and appreciated exchange rates,enhancing the credibility of the RMB,advocating for cross-border fulfillment of monetary functions by sovereign currencies,and conducting real-time supervision of financial risks;fourthly,promoting technological innovation by leveraging organizational strengths,fostering division of labor,specialized collaboration,and system integration,embracing the path of scientific and digital manufacturing,dissecting behavioral actions and thought processes,and moving towards intelligent manufacturing.

关 键 词：后工业化时代 特征 宏观经济政策 创新 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]