基于脱钩模型和空间杜宾模型的京津冀县域碳达峰类型划分及影响因素研究  

County carbon peak type classification and influencing factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei based on decoupling model and spatial Dubin model

作　　者：李业锦[1] 宋佳露 王嘉宁 熊南 LI Yejin;SONG Jialu;WANG Jianing;XIONG Nan(College of Resource Environment and Tourism,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2024年第9期1346-1351,1390,共7页Environmental Pollution & Control

摘　　要：以京津冀县域为研究单元,利用2010—2017年县域碳排放和社会经济面板数据,运用Tapio脱钩模型、扩展的STIRPAT模型与空间杜宾模型等方法,结合碳排放的空间自相关和脱钩状态进行综合分区,并揭示关键影响因素。结果表明:1)京津冀县域碳排放具有空间依赖性、空间溢出性以及空间分布不均衡性。在县域尺度上,京津冀县域碳达峰存在不同的类型差异,将京津冀县域划分为“双碳”高风险区(40个)、“双碳”中风险区(65个)、“双碳”低风险区(47个)、“双碳”风险潜在区(46个)。“双碳”高风险区、中风险区,碳达峰难度较大,将是京津冀协同推进“双碳”目标较为难啃的“硬骨头”。2)扩展的STIRPAT模型与空间杜宾模型的结果显示,不同碳达峰类型影响因素存在差异。对于“双碳”高风险区,城镇化水平、绿化水平对于碳排放强度具有显著的直接正向作用;对于“双碳”中风险区,对外贸易开放程度对碳排放强度具有显著的直接正向作用;对于“双碳”低风险区,社会富裕程度和第三产业发展水平对碳排放强度具有显著的直接负向作用;对于“双碳”风险潜在区,对外贸易开放程度、绿化水平、产业结构对于碳排放强度具有显著的直接正向作用。针对不同县域碳排放风险,亟需实施分类指导的碳排放管制策略。Based on the carbon emission and socio-economic panel data of counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2010-2017,the Tapio decoupling model,expanded STIRPAT model and spatial Durbin model were used to conduct a comprehensive zoning based on the spatial autocorrelation and decoupling of carbon emissions,and reveal the key influencing factors.The results showed that:1)carbon emissions at the county level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei had significant spatial dependence,spatial spillover and spatial imbalance.At the county level,there were different types of carbon peaking in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,which could be divided into“dual carbon”high risk zone(40),“dual carbon”medium risk zone(65),“dual carbon”low risk zone(47)and“dual carbon”potential zone(46).It was more difficult for“dual carbon”high and medium risk zone to reach the carbon peak,which would be the“hard bone”that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei would work together to promote the“dual carbon”target.2)The results of expanded STIRPAT model and spatial Durbin model showed that there were significant differences in the influencing factors of different types of carbon peaking.For“dual carbon”high risk zone,urbanization level and greening level had significant direct positive effects on carbon emission intensity.For the“dual carbon”medium risk zone,the degree of foreign trade openness had a significant direct positive effect on carbon emission intensity.For the“dual carbon”low risk zone,social affluence level and tertiary industry development level had significant direct negative effects on carbon emission intensity.For the“dual carbon”risk potential zone,the degree of foreign trade openness,greening level and industrial structure had a significant direct positive effect on carbon emission intensity.According to the carbon emission risk in different counties,it is urgent to implement the carbon emission control strategy with classified guidance.

关 键 词：碳排放 脱钩模型 碳达峰 影响因素 京津冀县域 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]