俄乌冲突下的欧亚地区秩序之变与未来走向  

Changes of Eurasian Order under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

作　　者：冯玉军 FENG Yujun

机构地区：[1]北京大学历史学系,北京100091

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2024年第5期1-10,143,共11页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：2022年以来的俄乌冲突成为催化欧亚地区秩序变迁的关键动因。受此影响,欧亚国家间的力量对比、相互认知以及不同欧亚国家的身份认同、战略取向等,都在经历着自苏联解体以来的历史性变化。俄罗斯作为欧亚地区主导国家的地位,受到自身实力下降、西方全方位制裁、欧亚国家自主意识增强等多重挑战。欧亚国家依据国情和战略利益自主选择发展道路的空间增大,欧亚地区将呈现更加多元的发展态势。“欧亚”作为一个过渡性地缘政治概念或将逐渐淡出国际政治的视野。Since February 2022,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for two and a half years.The protracted war has brought a historic and comprehensive impact on Russia.Russia has suffered a major setback on the battlefield.Russia has suffered unprecedented all-round economic sanctions from the West,and the obstacles to economic development have increased significantly,and the prospects for economic development are worrying.Russian geopolitical security environment has not only improved but also has further deteriorated.Moreover,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a key factor in catalyzing the change of order in Eurasia.Affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the power balance and mutual recognition among Eurasian countries,as well as the identity and strategic orientation of different Eurasian countries,are undergoinghistoric changes since the disintegration of the Soviet Union for more than 30 years.Russia’s status as a leading country in Eurasia is facing multiple challenges such as its own declining strength,bleak development prospects,and increased autonomy awareness of Eurasian countries.The possibility of Eurasian countries choosing their development paths based on their own national conditions and strategic interests has greatly increased.Eurasian countries are showing a trend of diversified development,and a series of“frozen conflicts”in the Eurasian region are gradually coming to an end.As the aftermath of the disintegration of the Soviet Union gradually subsides,“Eurasia”as a transitional geopolitical concept may gradually fade out of the international political field.

关 键 词：欧亚地区 地区秩序 俄罗斯 乌克兰 俄乌冲突 

分 类 号：D851.2[政治法律—政治学]