美国2024年总统大选走势及其对中美关系的影响  

Trends of the 2024 U.S.Presidential Election and Its Impact on China-U.S.Relations

作　　者：张文静 李文[2] ZHANG Wenjing;LI Wen

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学马克思主义学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院美国研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2024年第5期11-33,144,共24页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：随着哈里斯成为美国民主党总统候选人,2024年美大选形势变得愈加复杂。美国独特的选举人团制度及其复杂的选举过程,为大选结果增加了诸多不确定性。特朗普凭借在共和党内的强大基础,支持率一直维持高位。哈里斯凭借拜登政府的政策遗产、自身的年龄优势以及少数族裔、女性选民的支持迅速崛起,为民主党注入了新的活力。特朗普和哈里斯两位候选人的对决,影响美国国内的政治走向以及未来中美关系。中国经济和科技实力不断增强,美国的遏制策略效果日益有限。未来中美两国需要在竞争中寻求新的平衡,共同开辟新的历史背景下的大国正确相处之道。The 2024 U.S.presidential election was initially anticipated to be a major showdown between incumbent President Joe Biden and the former President Donald Trump.However,as Kamala Harris emerged as the Democratic presidential candidate,the electoral landscape has become more complicated.The unique Electoral College system and the complex election process in the U.S.have introduced significant uncertainties into the election outcome.Trump,with his strong base of support within the Republican Party,has maintained high approval ratings,while Harris has quickly risen in prominence by capitalizing on the Biden administration’s policy legacy,her age advantage,and support from minority and female voters,injecting new energy into the Democratic Party.The contest between these two candidates will not only shape the future direction of U.S.domestic politics but also have far-reaching implications for U.S.-China relations.If Harris wins,the U.S.is likely to continue to maintain containment policy towards China in a predictable and systematic manner.Conversely,if Trump prevails,his China policy is expected to be more extreme and casual,potentially posing greater challenges to the stability of U.S.-China relations.Despite the U.S.’s attempts to curb China’s rise through various means,the growing strength of China’s economy and technology has increasingly limited the effectiveness of containment strategies.Moving forward,the U.S.and China will need to find a new balance within this competition,jointly exploring ways for major powers to coexist in a new historical context.

关 键 词：美国政治 美国大选 政党政治 选举人团制度 政治极 化 中美关系 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学] D822.371.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]