城市化背景下合肥暴雨时空演变和水汽输送特征  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Rainstorm and Water Vapor Transport in Hefei Under Urbanization

作　　者：徐倩倩[1,2] 戴睿 原文杰 金晓龙 邓学良 武强 程志庆 Xu Qianqian;Dai Rui;Yuan Wenjie;Jin Xiaolong;Deng Xueliang;Wu Qiang;Cheng Zhiqing(Hefei Meteorological Bureau,Hefei 230041,China;Key Laboratory of Cities Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai 200092,China;Changzhi Meteorological Bureau,Changzhi,Shanxi 047400,China;School of History,Culture and Tourism,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang,Anhui 236041,China;Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Chongqing 401147,China;College of Resources and Environment,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥市气象局,合肥230041 [2]中国气象局上海城市气候变化应对重点开放实验室,上海200092 [3]长治市气象局,山西长治047400 [4]阜阳师范大学历史文化与旅游学院,安徽阜阳236041 [5]重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆401147 [6]安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥230000

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2024年第5期315-326,共12页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金(2208085QD120);安徽省自然科学基金江淮气象联合基金(2208085UQ03);安徽省气象局创新发展专项(CXB202202,AHQXZC202310);合肥市气象局科研项目(HFZL2020002)。

摘　　要：[目的]研究城市化背景下合肥暴雨事件的演变、水汽输送来源,可以为当地暴雨预报和制定适应性防灾减灾政策提供科学依据。[方法]利用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall非平稳性检验、GIS空间插值等多种方法探究合肥暴雨事件的时空分布,在此基础上基于拉格朗日方法的后向轨迹HYSPLIT模式对暴雨水汽输送特征进行分析。[结果](1)合肥城市热岛强度呈上升趋势(0.266℃/10 a),不透水面持续增多,增幅达4.99%。城—郊暴雨月分布呈单峰型,大尺度年际变化具有不对称性,城市暴雨雨量和暴雨日数增多,暴雨强度减少,减少趋势1.7 mm/(10 a·d);郊区暴雨雨量和日数减少,暴雨强度增多,线性趋势1.1 mm/(10 a·d)。暴雨强度大值区空间分布从城区向郊区扩展。暴雨事件均发生由少到多的突变。(2)城市化对下风向区暴雨事件存在增加效应,暴雨雨量和日数分别增多26.84 mm/10 a和0.11 d/10 a,且快速发展阶段的城市化效应比缓慢阶段更显著,城市化影响对暴雨雨量、暴雨日数的正贡献度分别为41.2%和50.1%。(3)暴雨异常偏多年份,来自印度洋、孟加拉湾—中国南海和西太平洋的水汽输送贡献分别占总水汽的44%,64%和54%,且源自西南方向的水汽气团初始高度较低、比湿大,是暴雨过程的主要水汽来源。[结论]合肥城郊暴雨事件年际变化的不对性在城市化快速发展阶段更显著,未来应加强对城市化快速发展阶段暴雨事件变化机理的研究。[Objective] The aims of this study are to investigate on the evolution of rainstorm events and the sources of water vapor transport in Hefei under the background of urbanization,and to provide scientific basis for local rainstorm forecast and formulation of adaptive disaster prevention and reduction policies.[Methods] Trend analysis,Mann-Kendall non-stationarity test,GIS spatial interpolation and other methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorm events in Hefei,on this basis,the characteristics of rainstorm water vapor transport were analyzed based on the backward trajectory HYSPLIT model of Lagrange method.[Results](1) The urban heat island effect showed an upward trend(0.266℃/10 a),impervious water surface continued to increase by 4.99%,the large-scale interannual variability of urban-suburban rainstorms had a feature of asymmetry,with an increase in the amount and number of days of urban rainstorms and a decrease in the intensity of rainstorms at a rate of-1.7 mm/(10 a·d);and an increase in the intensity of suburban rainstorms at a rate of 1.1 mm/(10 a·d);and a decrease in the amount and number of days of rainstorms.The spatial distribution of the large value area of rainstorm intensity extends outward from urban areas.(2) Urbanization had increased the number and extremity of rainstorm events in downwind urban areas,and the urbanization effect was more pronounced in the rapid development phase than in the slow development phase.The contribution of urbanization effects to the rainfall,number of days and intensity of rainstorms was 41.2%,50.1%.(3) The water vapor transport from the Indian Ocean,the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea and the Western Pacific accounted for 44%,64% and 54% of the total water vapor,respectively,and the water vapor mass from the southwest was the main source of water vapor during the rainstorm process because of its low initial height and large specific humidity.[Conclusion] The asymmetry of rainstorm events in the suburbs of Hefei is more significant

关 键 词：城市化 暴雨时空分布 HYSPLIT模式 水汽输送 合肥 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学]