基于随机Petri网的突发火灾应急预案流程化研究  

Research on process of emergency fire emergency plan based on Stochastic Petri Net

作　　者：杨震[1] 肖平 郭梨 YANG Zhen;XIAO Ping;GUO Li(Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi'an Shaanxi 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学,陕西西安710055 [2]西安市智慧工业感知计算与决策重点实验室,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2024年第10期1-5,共5页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51208282);陕西省自然科学基金面上项目(2022JM-274)。

摘　　要：为提高突发火灾的应急响应效率,根据突发火灾的应急响应流程构建了基于随机Petri网(SPN)的仿真模型,通过仿真计算获取了该模型的状态可达集,由可达集构建与模型同构的马尔可夫链对模型进行计算分析,得到了突发火灾SPN模型所有可达状态的稳态概率,利用库所繁忙率、变迁利用率2个指标对模型进行性能分析。结果表明,突发火灾应急响应流程中应急专家、救援人员、救援物资3个业务单元的繁忙率高达35.36%、39.37%、38.25%,展开应急救援耗时在流程总耗时中占比高达27.74%,制定突发火灾应急预案时需着重对以上业务单元及流程环节进行优化,从而优化应急资源调配,提高应急响应整体效率。In order to improve the emergency response efficiency of emergency fire,a simulation model based on Stochastic Petri Net(SPN)was constructed according to the emergency response process of emergency fire.The state reachable set of the model was obtained through simulation calculation,and the Markov chain isomorphic with the rea chable set was constructed to calculate and analyze the model.The steady state probability of all reachability states of SPN model of emergency fire is obtained,and the performance of the model is analyzed by using two indexes,which are busy rate of places and utilization rate of transition.The results show that the busy rates of three places,which are emergency experts,rescue personnel and rescue materials,are as high as 35.36%,39.37%and 38.25%,respectively.And the time spent on start emergency rescue is as high as 27.74%of the total time spent in the entire process.The above business units and process links should be optimized when formulating emergency fire emergency plans,thereby optimizing the allocation of emergency resources and improving the overall efficiency of emergency response.

关 键 词：火灾应急预案 随机PETRI网 马尔可夫链 性能分析 

分 类 号：TU998.1[建筑科学—市政工程] X928.7[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TP301.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]