“一带一路”倡议的社会稳定效应研究  

The Social Stabilization Effect by the“Belt and Road”Initiative

作　　者：彭冬冬[1] Peng Dongdong(Fujian Administration Institute,CPC Fujian Provincial Party School,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]中共福建省委党校福建行政学院,福建福州350001

出　　处：《黑河学院学报》2024年第9期27-31,共5页Journal of Heihe University

摘　　要：恐怖活动是危害社会稳定的重要因素,而“一带一路”倡议的实施可以为抑制沿线国家恐怖活动的发生,维护沿线国家社会稳定发挥关键作用。基于2011—2020年168个国家的面板数据,运用双重差分模型评估了“一带一路”倡议的社会稳定效应,即“一带一路”倡议的实施对沿线国家恐怖活动发生的影响。结果显示:“一带一路”倡议的实施显著降低了沿线国家恐怖活动的发生次数,表明“一带一路”倡议具有社会稳定效应。机制检验发现,“一带一路”倡议的实施通过降低失业率与增加公共医疗供给抑制恐怖活动的发生,促进沿线国家的社会稳定。差异化分析的结果表明,一方面,在人口密度或老龄化程度较高的国家以及“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家,“一带一路”倡议对恐怖活动发生的抑制效应更明显;另一方面,“一带一路”倡议对以私人与财产、政府为袭击目标的恐怖活动发生的抑制效应更明显。研究结论证实了“一带一路”倡议为世界和平稳定注入新动能。Terrorist activities are an important factor endangering social stability,and the implementation of the“Belt and Road”Initiative can play a key role in curbing terrorist activities and maintaining social stability in countries along the route.Based on the panel data of 168 countries from 2011 to 2020,this paper evaluates the social stability eff ect of the Belt and Road Initiative,namely the impact of the implementation of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on the occurrence of terrorist activities in countries along the route by using the diff erential model.The results show that the implementation of the“Belt and Road”initiative signifi cantly reduces the number of terrorist activities in countries along the route,indicating that the“Belt and Road”initiative has social stability eff ect.The mechanism test found that the implementation of the“Belt and Road”initiative can inhibit terrorist activities by reducing unemployment and increasing public medical supplies,and promote social stability in countries along the route.The results of diff erentiation analysis show the following:On the one hand,the“Belt and Road”Initiative has a more obvious inhibitory eff ect on terrorist activities in countries with high population density or aging degree and countries along the“21st Century Maritime Silk Road”;On the other hand,the“Belt and Road”Initiative has a more signifi cant inhibitory eff ect on the occurrence of terrorist activities targeting private individuals,property and governments.The fi ndings confi rm that the“Belt and Road”Initiative has injected new momentum into world peace and stability.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 社会稳定 恐怖活动 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F02[经济管理—政治经济学] H55[语言文字] O17[理学—数学]