安徽省雪灾危险性精细化评估与区划  

Refinded hazard assessment and regionalization of snow disaster in Anhui Province

作　　者：鞠晓雨 田红[2] 程向阳 唐为安[2] 朱浩 JU Xiaoyu;TIAN Hong;CHENG Xiangyang;TANG Wei-an;ZHU Hao(Huai River Basin Meteorological Center,Hefei 230031;Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031;Anhui Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center,Hefei 230031;Shouxian National Climatology Observatory,Huainan 232200)

机构地区：[1]淮河流域气象中心,合肥230031 [2]安徽省气候中心,合肥230031 [3]安徽省气象灾害防御技术中心,合肥230031 [4]寿县国家气候观象台,淮南232200

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2024年第5期580-586,共7页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：安徽省科技厅标准化专项(202004h07020001);安徽省新技术集成项目(AHXJ201905)。

摘　　要：在全国气象灾害综合风险普查技术规范基础上,针对安徽省雪灾影响特点,增加雪压这一观测要素,建立以年均最大积雪深度、年均积雪日数和最大雪压作为致灾因子的危险性评估模型,利用1978—2020年安徽省81个国家气象观测站雪深、雪压及地理信息等资料,分析各致灾因子的时空分布特征,并进行积雪日数地形订正,开展安徽省雪灾危险性精细化评估。结果表明:安徽省国家站最大积雪深度平均值、积雪日数平均值和最大雪压的年际变化趋势差异较大,位列前三的年份均为2008年、1984年和2018年;年均最大积雪深度大值区主要集中在大别山区、皖南山区和江淮之间。由于100m以上区域的年均积雪日数与高程相关性显著且样本数量适中,对该区域进行地形订正后,年均积雪日数高值区位于大别山区及皖南山区,其次为淮北地区西北部至大别山区北麓一带。对最大雪压进行缺测插补计算,宣城、铜陵、黄山北部等地最大雪压值有所提高,且局地特征更为显著。安徽省雪灾致灾高危险区主要位于大别山区以及皖南山区等海拔较高地区,而低危险区主要位于淮北地区东部、江淮之间东部和沿江西南部。Based on the technical specifications for the national comprehensive risk survey of meteorological disasters,and in view of the characteristics of snow disaster impacts in Anhui Province,the observation element of snow pressure is considered and combined with other disaster causative factors,such as the annual maximum snow depth and annual average snow-covered days to establish a risk assessment model.Using the data of snow depth,snow pressure,and geographic information from 81 national meteorological observation stations in Anhui Province from 1978 to 2020,the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of various disaster-causing factors are analyzed,and the terrain correction for snow-covered days is performed to obtain a refined assessment of snow disaster risk in Anhui Province.The results are as follows.The annual variation and differences of the average maximum snow depth,average snow-covered days,and maximum snow pressure are significant,but the top three years for all these factors are 2008,1984,and 2018.The areas with high annual maximum snow depth are mainly concentrated between the Dabie Mountains,the southern Anhui Mountains,and the regions between the Yangtze River and the Huai River.Considering the significant correlation between the annual snow-covered days and elevation in the area above 100 meters and the appropriate sample size,after terrain correction,the high-value areas of snow-covered days are located in the Dabie Mountains and the southern Anhui Mountains,followed by the northwest of Huaibei to the northern foothills of Dabie Mountains.After interpolation calculation of missing measurements,the maximum snow pressure in Xuancheng,Tongling,northern Mount Huangshan,and other places is increased,with distinct localized characteristics.The high-risk areas caused by snow disasters in Anhui Province are mainly located in high-altitude regions such as the Dabie Mountains and the mountainous areas in southern Anhui,while the low-risk areas are mainly located in the eastern part of the Huaibei regio

关 键 词：雪灾 积雪深度 雪压 地形订正 危险性评估 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]