全球制造业出口产品空间特征对产业升级路径的影响  

Influence of Characteristics of Export Product Space in Global Manufacturing on the Industrial Upgrading Path

作　　者：周锐波 宋佳晞 ZHOU Ruibo;SONG Jiaxi(School of Economics and Finance,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与金融学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《华南理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第5期29-42,共14页Journal of South China University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“多空间尺度视角下粤港澳大湾区协同创新发展研究”(19BJY064)。

摘　　要：制造业转型升级是各个国家(地区)抢占发展先机、保持国际市场竞争优势的主要方式。基于产品空间理论,采用联合国商品贸易三位码面板数据,绘制2000—2022年全球制造业产品空间结构图,揭示产品空间异质性和动态性发展特征及演化规律;利用精明专业化分析框架,构建二元离散选择模型,从产品升级及产品失势动态变化的视角,检验各个国家(地区)出口产品关联度和产品复杂度对产业升级的影响效应,为各个国家(地区)制造业转型升级和发展路径提供决策依据。研究发现:制造业转型升级是实现经济贸易稳定增长的重要一环;制造业稳居全球出口贸易主体地位,其中技术密集型制造业占据主导;全球制造业产品空间始终保持“核心—边缘”的结构分布,但边缘产品的边缘化趋势逐渐明显,技术密集型、劳动密集型和资本密集型制造业产品呈现逐渐分化的趋势;全球制造业产业升级表现出明显的路径依赖特征,而产品复杂度的提升会加大产业升级风险;不同产业类别和不同创新能力水平的国家(地区)制造业升级路径均表现出明显的异质性。研究结论对制造业升级路径选择和政策制定具有一定参考意义。The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is the main battlefield for countries and regions to seize development opportunities and maintain international competitive advantages.Based on the product space theory and data from the UN Comtrade database at STIC(Rev.3)3-digit level,this paper constructed the spatial patterns of global manufacturing products from 2000 to 2022,and reveals heterogeneous and dynamic characteristics and evolution rules of the product space.Based on the smart specialization analysis framework,a binary discrete model was constructed to test the the effect and mechanism of exported product density and product complexity on industrial upgrading from the perspective of dynamic changes of product upgrading and product loss.The results show that:firstly,the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector is an important part of achieving stable economic and trade growth.Manufacturing industry remains the main body of global export trade,among which the technology-intensive manufacturing industry dominates.Secondly,the distribution of product space in global manufacturing always maintains the core-edge structure distribution,but the marginalization trend of marginal products is gradually obvious.Technology-based,labor-intensive,and capital-intensive manufacturing products show a trend of gradual differentiation.Thirdly,the global manufacturing industry upgrading shows obvious characteristics of path dependence,and the improvement of product complexity will increase the risk of industrial upgrading.The manufacturing upgrading paths of different countries and regions with different industrial categories and different innovation ability levels all show obvious heterogeneity,and the research conclusions have certain reference significance for the selection of manufacturing upgrading path and policy formulation.

关 键 词：出口产品 产品空间 产品密度 产品复杂度 社会网络分析 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]