交通强国背景下交通运输行业碳达峰碳中和路径研究  

Research on carbon peak and carbon neutralization paths of transportation industry under the background of transportation power

作　　者：顾明[1] 徐达 付桥林 岑琪 周颖 GU Ming;XU Da;FU Qiaolin;CEN Qi;ZHOU Ying(Tianjin Research Institute for Water Transport Engineering,Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection Technology on Water Transport,Ministry of Transport,Tianjin 300456,China;Ningbo Zhoushan Port Group Co.Ltd.,Ningbo 315042,China;Guangxi Qinzhou Bonded Port Shenggang Terminal Co.Ltd.,Qinzhou 535000,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部天津水运工程科学研究所水路交通环境保护技术交通行业重点实验室,天津300456 [2]宁波舟山港集团有限公司,宁波315042 [3]广西钦州保税港区盛港码头有限公司,钦州535000

出　　处：《水道港口》2024年第4期662-668,共7页Journal of Waterway and Harbor

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB26016000);中国-阿联酋绿色生态港口建设技术联合实验室项目(2022YFE0113500);宁波市交通运输局科技计划项目(202215)。

摘　　要：将交通强国建设目标与我国交通运输领域碳达峰碳中和目标有机结合,以交通运输历年不同客货运量和周转量为基准,综合考虑运输结构调整、能效提升、清洁燃料替代、需求管理等各项减排措施,预测交通碳排放,提出交通运输领域碳达峰碳中和时间表和路线图,明确交通运输行业各阶段减排路径。研究结果表明:我国交通运输领域预计2035年碳达峰,碳排放量达15.5亿t,碳排放稳步增长阶段,提升车船能效水平是实现碳减排的主要措施;碳排放达峰平台期,主要减排措施是新能源车辆开始大规模商业化应用。碳排放快速下降期,全面推广新能源清洁能源车船应用,交通基础设施利用风光发电开始形成规模化降碳效果。碳排放稳步下降期,新能源清洁能源车船应用比例进一步提高,交通和能源深度融合,交通碳排放降到最低。The goal of building a transportation power will be organically combined with the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the field of transportation in China.Based on different passenger and freight traffic volumes and turnover over the years in transportation,taking into account various emission reduction measures such as transportation structure adjustment,energy efficiency improvement,clean fuel substitution,and demand management,the traffic carbon emissions will be predicted,the schedule and roadmap for carbon peak and carbon neutralization in transportation will be proposed,and the emission reduction path of transportation industry in each stage will be clarified.The research results show that China′s transport sector is expected to reach the peak of carbon emissions in 2035,with carbon emissions reaching 15.5 billion tons.At the stage of steady growth of carbon emissions,improving the level of vehicle and vessel energy efficiency is the main measure to achieve carbon emission reduction.During the peak and platform period of carbon emissions,the main emission reduction measures are the large-scale commercial application of new energy vehicles,the rapid decline period of carbon emissions,the comprehensive promotion of new energy and clean energy vehicle and ship applications,the large-scale carbon reduction effect of using wind power generation for transportation infrastructure,the steady decline period of carbon emissions,the further increase of the proportion of new energy and clean energy vehicle and ship applications,the deep integration of transportation and energy,and the minimum of transportation carbon emissions.

关 键 词：交通强国 碳达峰 碳中和 碳排放 换算周转量 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]