2022年芦山6.1级地震序列b值变化特征  

Variation characteristics of b value of Lushan M6.1 earthquake sequence in 2022

作　　者：李世杰 罗丹芩 陶卓 陈涛 LI Shijie;LUO Danqin;TAO Zhuo;CHEN Tao(Earthquake Administration of Guizhou Province,Guiyang 550001,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省地震局,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《贵州科学》2024年第5期64-68,共5页Guizhou Science

基　　金：贵州省地震局地震科技基金项目GZSDZJDZKJJJ202207,GZSDZJDZKJJJ202105。

摘　　要：2022年6月1日,四川省雅安市芦山县发生6.1级地震,为研究此次地震的b值变化特征及该区域未来发生中强震的风险,本文利用震中所处的龙门山断裂带两侧40 km作为研究区,通过ZAMP程序中的拟合度检测法分析研究区2009年来地震序列的完整性[1],用最大似然法计算研究区b值时间和空间的变化。时间扫描中该区域的平均背景b值为0.71左右,当b值小于这个值时,发生5级以上地震的可能性就增大。空间扫描结果表明芦山6.1级地震所处位置处于低b值区。综合分析,该区域未来有发生中强震的可能。On June 1,2022,a 6.1 magnitude earthquake occurred in Lushan County,Ya′an City,Sichuan Province.In order to study the characteristics of the b value changes of this earthquake and the risk of future moderate to strong earthquakes in the region,this article takes 40 kilometers on both sides of the Longmenshan fault zone where the epicenter is located as the research area.The integrity of the earthquake sequence since 2009 in the research area is analyzed by using the fitting detection method in the ZAMP program,and the temporal and spatial changes of b value in the research area are calculated by using the maximum likelihood method.The average background b value in this area during the time scan is around 0.71.When the b value is less than this value,the likelihood of an earthquake with a magnitude of 5 or above increases.The spatial scanning results indicate that the location of the Lushan 6.1 magnitude earthquake is in a low b value zone.Based on comprehensive analysis,there is a possibility of moderate to strong earthquakes occurring in the region in the future.

关 键 词：芦山6.1级地震 B值 时间扫描 空间扫描 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]