我国鲜食葡萄价格波动特征及影响因素研究  

Study on Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Table Grape in China

作　　者：赵梦瑶 赵君彦[1] 张泽 姚淼 ZHAO Mengyao;ZHAO Junyan;ZHANG Ze;YAO Miao(School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding,Hebei 071000)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《北方园艺》2024年第18期136-144,共9页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：河北省现代农业产业体系葡萄创新团队产业经济岗位资助项目(HBCT2023150301)。

摘　　要：葡萄在全球的需求不断增加,中国作为全球最大的鲜食葡萄供应商,价格的波动性也日益显著,这给葡萄产业带来了极大的挑战。为更好地把握葡萄市场价格的波动特征及其影响因素,选取2014年1月至2023年10月我国葡萄价格数据,运用Census X12季节性变化模型以及H-P滤波法,深入探讨葡萄价格波动的原因以及可能的影响,以期为葡萄产业的健康发展注入新活力。结果表明:葡萄价格的季节性、周期性波动在逐渐趋缓;成本上升与需求增加推动价格趋势性上涨;自然灾害、国家政策等因素导致葡萄价格不规则波动。对此,需通过技术进步推进葡萄生产供给稳定,建立健全葡萄全产业链预警机制,完善特色农业保险制度,大力推进葡萄产业融合发展。The increasing demand for grapes in the world,China as the world′s largest table grape supplier,price volatility is also increasingly significant,which brings great challenges to the grape industry.In order to better grasp the fluctuation characteristics of grape market price and its influencing factors,the grape price data of China from January 2014 to October 2023 were selected,and the Census X12 seasonal change model and H-P filtering method were used to further explore the causes and possible impacts of grape price fluctuations,in order to inject new vitality into the healthy development of grape industry.The results showed that the seasonal and cyclical fluctuations of grape prices were gradually slowing down.Rising costs and increasing demand drive up the price trend;natural disasters,national policies and other factors lead to irregular fluctuations in grape prices.To this end,it was necessary to promote the stability of grape production and supply through technological progress,establish and improve the whole grape industry chain early warning mechanism,improve the characteristic agricultural insurance system,vigorously promote the integrated development of the grape industry.

关 键 词：葡萄价格 波动特征 X12 季节调整模型 H-P 滤波法 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]