应对农业巨灾保险市场失衡问题的演化博弈策略分析  

Analysis of Agricultural Catastrophe Insurance Market Imbalance from the Perspective of Evolutionary Game

作　　者：王晓岚 王静[1] 王新利[2] Wang Xiaolan;Wang Jing;Wang Xinli

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]黑龙江八一农垦大学经济管理学院,黑龙江大庆163319

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2024年第8期106-118,共13页Financial Theory and Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“农户生产联结(PPL)机制及其关联性信用风险演化机理研究”(71873101)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：气候变化导致农业巨灾频发,对农民收入影响较大。尽管我国农业保险在“十四五”期间发展快速,但依然存在诸多问题,如赔付不足、补偿力度低、保障水平不高等。基于演化博弈理论,分析农业巨灾保险市场的非均衡问题,提出相应改进措施。在模型设计中,结合市场均衡策略与长期均衡,考虑农业再保险公司和政府的作用,利用Matlab仿真分析农户和保险公司的决策行为。研究发现,农业巨灾保险市场的非均衡主要受信息不对称、风险厌恶、经营规模、保险品种等因素影响。此外,政策性农业巨灾保险市场的非均衡在各省份间存在差异。研究结论可为农业保险及再保险产品的设计提供理论借鉴,也可为进一步改善农业巨灾保险市场的非均衡现状、促进农业保险市场的健康发展提供参考。Climate change has led to an increased frequency of agricultural catastrophes,significant-ly impacting farmers’incomes.Despite the rapid development of agricultural insurance in China during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period,numerous issues persist,such as insufficient payouts,low compensation intensity,and inadequate levels of protection.Based on evolutionary game theory,this study analyzes the disequilibrium in the agricultural catastrophe insurance market and proposes im-provement measures.In the model design,market equilibrium strategies and long-term equilibrium are combined,considering the roles of agricultural reinsurance companies and the government.Mat-lab simulations are utilized to analyze the decision-making behaviors of farmers and insurance com-panies.The study finds that the disequilibrium in the agricultural catastrophe insurance market is primarily influenced by factors such as information asymmetry,risk aversion,operational scale,and types of insurance products.Moreover,there are significant differences in the disequilibrium of poli-cy-oriented agricultural catastrophe insurance markets across different provinces.These findings provide theoretical insights for the design of agricultural insurance and reinsurance products and of-fer valuable references for improving the disequilibrium status of the agricultural catastrophe insur-ance market,thereby promoting the healthy development of the agricultural insurance market.

关 键 词：农业巨灾保险 非均衡 演化博弈 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]