存款利率约束下货币政策传导机制研究  

Study on the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy under the Constraints of Deposit Interest Rate

作　　者：江振龙 Zhenlong Jiang(Institute of Finance&Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;National Institution for Finance and Development)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所 [2]国家金融与发展实验室

出　　处：《经济学报》2024年第3期1-36,共36页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“房地产市场波动的影响因素、传导机制和政策分析”(项目批准号:72303237);中国社会科学院“青启计划”(项目编号:2024QQJH120);中国社会科学院青年人文社会科学研究中心社会调研项目“人民币国际化与金融高水平开放的实现路径”(项目编号:2025QNZX013);中国社会科学院学科建设“登峰战略”资助计划(项目编号:DF2023YS28)的资助。

摘　　要：本文在标准的金融加速器模型上嵌入内生杠杆约束的银行部门,构建了一个包含双重金融摩擦的动态新凯恩斯模型,定量分析存款利率约束下货币政策的传导机制和效果。风险冲击和金融冲击的脉冲响应结果显示,存款利率触及有效下限约束导致货币政策失效,从而加剧经济波动。基于政策评估的长短期视角综合分析发现,存款利率约束弱化了货币政策的实际利率和银行信贷传导机制,导致宽松货币政策刺激经济效果不显著,突破存款利率约束是货币政策发挥作用的关键。进一步研究结果表明,积极的财政政策在存款利率的约束下提高了货币政策传导的有效性,与货币政策协调搭配的效果十分显著,具有较强的经济扩张效应。本文研究对我国货币政策调控的启示在于:一是珍惜货币政策空间,避免存款利率触及下限约束;二是积极推进利率市场化改革,大力疏通我国货币政策传导机制;三是在利率双轨制下,货币政策要着力营造良好的货币金融环境,财政政策要更加积极有为、主动发力,继续实施好“积极财政+稳健货币”的政策组合拳。This paper embeds the banking sector with endogenous leverage constraints on the standard financial accelerator model,constructs a dynamic New Keynesian model containing financial supply-demand frictions,and quantitatively analyzes the transmission mechanism and effect of monetary policy under deposit interest rate constraints.The impulse response results show that when deposit interest rates hit the lower bound,monetary policy becomes ineffective,thereby exacerbating economic fluctuations.A comprehensive analysis based on the long-term and short-term perspective of policy evaluation found that deposit interest rate constraints weakened the real interest rate and bank credit transmission mechanism of monetary policy,resulting in the insignificant effect of monetary policy on stimulating the economy.Breaking through deposit interest rate constraints is the key to the effectiveness of monetary policy.Further research results show that active fiscal policy strengthens the real interest rate and bank credit transmission mechanism of monetary policy under the constraints of deposit interest rates,has a more significant coordination effect with monetary policy,and has a strong economic expansion effect.This study has three policy implications:first,cherish the monetary policy space and avoid deposit interest rates from hitting the lower limit;second,actively promote the market-oriented reform of interest rates and vigorously unblock monetary policy transmission mechanism;third,under the dual-track interest rate system,monetary policy must focus on creating a good monetary and financial environment,fiscal policies must be more proactive,and continue to implement the policy combination of“active fiscal policy+sound monetary policy”.

关 键 词：利率双轨制 货币政策 双重金融摩擦 动态新凯恩斯模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]