鉴古问今,抗日战争对中日贸易的长期影响——基于山东省企业层面数据的经验分析  

Taking History as a Mirror,the Long-term Impact of the Anti-Japanese War on Sino-Japanese Trade——Analysis Based on EnterprisesData from Shandong Province

作　　者：车翼 吕金秋 徐巡 张燕[3] Yi Che;Jinqiu Lv;Xun Xu;Yan Zhang(School of Business,East China University of Science and Technology;Antai College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University;School of Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economic)

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院 [2]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院 [3]上海财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学报》2024年第3期96-125,共30页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073095);华东理工大学探索研究基金项目和华东理工大学研究生教育教学改革研究项目的资助。;上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2023BJB010);中央高校基本科研业务费数字经济高质量发展的特征及驱动策略研究项目(2023110139);上海重点智库课题的资助。

摘　　要：对外贸易高质量发展是“十四五”时期的重要任务,本文为党中央新发展格局的构建和中日贸易的进一步发展提供了一定的政策建议。依据山东省党史研究室统计的各县(市、区)在抗日战争期间遇难人员的详细信息,本文采用双重差分模型考察了抗日战争期间山东省各县(市、区)遇难者人数是否仍旧影响当今山东各行业企业对日贸易。结果表明,若各县(市、区)遇难者人数增加1%,则各县(市、区)与日本在行业层面上的贸易总额和进口额将分别减少0.239%和0.366%,而出口额没有受到显著影响。我们发现遇难者人数对贸易的负面影响在中日政治关系紧张时显著增强。进一步的分析结果显示,年轻遇难者占比显著增加其对贸易总额和进口额的抑制效应。此外,国有企业和全要素生产率更高行业的企业进口额受抗日战争的负面影响更大。最后,本文的稳健性检验显示死难者人数对贸易的负面影响只存在于中日贸易中。High-quality development of foreign trade is an important task during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.This paper provides certain policy suggestions for the further development of Sino-Japanese trade and the construction of a new development pattern of the Party Central Committee.According to the statistics of the Shandong Provincial Party History Research Office,the detailed information of the people killed in each county(cities,districts)during the Second Sino-Japanese War,this paper uses a difference-in-differences model to examine whether the number of victims in each county(cities,districts)of Shandong Province during the Second Sino-Japanese War has an impact on the trade between Shandong enterprises in various industries and Japan.The results show that if the number of victims in each county(city,district)increases by 1%,the total trade and import value between each county(city,district)and Japan at the industry level will decrease by 0.239%and 0.366%,respectively,the export value was not significantly affected.We found that the negative impact of the number of victims on trade increased significantly when the political relationship between China and Japan was tense.Further analysis showed that the proportion of young victims significantly increased its inhibitory effect on total trade and imports.In addition,the imports of stateowned enterprises and enterprises in industries with higher total factor productivity were more negatively affected by the Second Sino-Japanese War.Finally,the robustness test of this paper shows that the negative impact of the number of victims on trade only exists in Sino-Japanese trade.

关 键 词：抗日战争 中日贸易 双重差分模型 新发展格局 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F753.13[经济管理—产业经济] K265[历史地理—历史学]