对非农业援助能否“以农兴工”——基于援非农技示范中心的准自然实验  

Can China's Agricultural Assistance to African Countries Improve the Level of Industrial Development——Quasi natural experiment based on African Agricultural Technology Demonstration Center

作　　者：高杨 王亚琦[2] 王寿彭 Yang Gao;Yaqi Wang;Shoupeng Wang(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University;School of Economics,Qufu Normal University)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院 [2]曲阜师范大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学报》2024年第3期432-463,共32页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目:“有为‘链长’赋能绿色低碳农业产业链研究”(22BGL164)的资助。

摘　　要：农业现代化的推进是工业发展的基石与动力源泉。本文基于2000—2019年非洲54个国家的面板数据,以援非农技示范中心开始运营作为外生冲击事件,采用多时点双重差分法就对非农业援助带给受援国工业发展水平的影响予以考察,并对其作用路径进行探析。研究发现,对非农业援助的实施显著提升了受援国工业发展水平,作用路径为产品贡献(粮食和原材料供给)、市场贡献(生活消费和生产消费扩容)和要素贡献(劳动力转移和资本积累)。对非农业援助对经济发展水平低、政治和投资风险程度低、农业自然条件良好的受援国工业发展水平提升作用更强。拓展性分析表明,对非农业援助对受援国产生了“污染光环”效应。本文在丰富对非援助相关研究的同时,也为非洲各国通过重视农业进步进而推动“以农兴工”,最终实现工农联动发展,初步提供了依据。The promotion of agricultural modernization is the cornerstone and power source of industrial development.This study used the time-varying DID model to evaluate the effect of the exogenous impact event that the start of the operation of the Agricultural Technology Demonstration Center for Africa assistance,to investigate the impact of agricultural assistance to African countries on the level of industrial development of recipient countries and its paths,by using the panel data of 54 developing countries in the African from years 2000 to 2019.This article have found that the implementation of agricultural assistance to African countries has significantly improved the level of industrial development of the recipient countries through the paths of product contributions(grain and raw material supply),market contributions(expansion of daily consumption and productive consumption),and factor contributions(labor transfer and capital accumulation).Agricultural assistance to African countries has a stronger effect on improving the level of industrial development of recipient countries with lower economic development,less political and investment risk and better agricultural natural conditions than others.Extensive analysis shows that agricultural assistance to African countries has a“pollution halo”effect on recipient countries.While enriching the literature on assisting Africa,this article also provides support for African countries to promote the“revitalization of industry with agriculture”by paying attention to agricultural progress,and finally realize the coordinated development of industrial sector and agricultural sector.

关 键 词：农业技术示范中心 援非 以农兴工 污染光环 多时点双重差分法 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济] F34