哈萨克斯坦货币政策分析  

Monetary Policy of Kazakhstan

作　　者：刘遵乐 Liu Zunle

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行新疆维吾尔自治区分行

出　　处：《欧亚经济》2024年第5期111-126,134,共17页Journal of Eurasian Economy

基　　金：2020年国家社会科学基金项目“中国在中亚拓展境外经贸合作区与中亚国家经济特区互动发展研究”(项目编号:20BGJ043);2022年新疆自然科学基金项目“丝绸之路经济带核心区与中亚五国深化经贸合作的提升路径研究”(项目编号:2022D01A205)。

摘　　要：该文梳理哈萨克斯坦独立以来货币政策演进过程并将其划分为三个阶段,重点分析了新冠疫情前后的哈货币政策及执行情况。2020年以后,新冠疫情冲击、政局动荡叠加俄乌冲突导致外部环境恶化,对哈萨克斯坦经济造成严重冲击,导致国内通胀率持续攀升,货币政策既定的通胀目标未能实现。哈央行在吸取经验的基础上确定下一阶段仍将坚持实施通胀目标制货币政策,改进并完善原有货币政策框架,重点针对政策传导环节、利率走廊建设、自由浮动汇率制度及相关配套经济政策等薄弱环节进行优化,确定2025年将通胀率稳定在3%~4%区间的政策目标。Analyzing the process of the evolvement of Kazakhstan's monetary policy since its independence in 1991,this paper divides the process into three stages and focuses on the country's monetary policy,and its implementation before and after the COVID-19 Pandemic.Since 2020,the intensification of the external settings owing to the impact of the pandemic,political changes,and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused severe impact on the country's economy and resulted in rising domestic prices and failure of its current inflation targeting objectives.Learning from,past experiences,the Central Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to continue inflation targeting in the foreseeable future,improve and perfect the existing monetary policy framework,optimize the imperfect areas and attach importance to policy transmission,the construction of an interest rate corridor and a floating exchange rate regime,and relevant economic policies.

关 键 词：哈萨克斯坦 货币政策 外部冲击 通胀目标制 

分 类 号：F823.61[经济管理—财政学]