贸易保护如何影响广东城市出口升级?——基于出口技术复杂度视角  

The impact of trade protection on export upgradingin Guangdong cities: An analysisbased on export sophistication

作　　者：朱向东 许德友[2] 朱晟君[3] ZHU Xiangdong;XU Deyou;ZHU Shengjun(Department of Society and Ecological Civilization,Party School of the Guangdong Provincial Committee of CPC,Guangzhou 510053,China;Education Administration Office,Party School of the Guangdong Provincial Committee of CPC,Guangzhou 510053,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中共广东省委党校社会和生态文明教研部,广州510053 [2]中共广东省委党校教务处,广州510053 [3]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《地理研究》2024年第10期2616-2634,共19页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001116、42122006);国家社会科学基金项目(19BJL007);中共广东省委党校重大攻关课题(XYZDGG202402);广州市哲学社科规划2023年度课题(2023GZGJ22)。

摘　　要：随着国际形势和地缘格局演变,贸易保护成为影响出口升级的重要因素,甄别贸易保护冲击下能够助力出口升级的区域因素,具有重要现实意义。本文将贸易保护纳入区域出口升级分析框架,以广东为例,基于2009—2016年中国海关贸易数据和全球贸易预警组织数据,呈现城市出口技术复杂度、城市遭受贸易保护的空间格局,以计量模型厘清贸易保护对城市出口技术复杂度的影响,并进行中介效应、调节效应及空间异质性分析。研究发现:①广东遭受的贸易保护中,58.5%源于发达国家,67.1%针对珠三角城市;②整体而言,离珠三角越远,城市出口技术复杂度越低;③贸易保护倒逼城市出口升级,实证显示贸易保护促进城市增强创新水平,减少出口产品多元化程度,进而提升出口技术复杂度;④相较于非珠三角城市,贸易保护对珠三角城市出口升级的促进更为显著,拉大了区域差距;⑤产业集聚增强贸易保护的作用,在区域层面助力非珠三角地区出口升级,在目的国层面助力向发达国家出口升级。研究启示,依托产业集聚,增强针对性研发创新,优化出口产品和出口市场结构,是推动贸易保护下出口升级的重要举措。With the dynamic of geopolitics and international relations,trade protection increasingly influences the upgrading of exports.Previous research primarily addressed this topic within the contexts of industries and firms without taking full consideration of geographical characteristics.This study incorporates trade protection into the research framework of regional export upgrading,with a focus on Guangdong.By analyzing China Customs trade data and Global Trade Alert data spanning 2009 to 2016,this paper delineates the spatial patterns of trade protection and the sophistication of urban exports.Through econometric analysis,the impact of trade protection on urban export sophistication is examined,alongside mediation effects,moderating effects,and spatial heterogeneity.Findings reveal that 58.5%of trade protection incidents in Guangdong originate from developed countries,predominantly targeting cities within the Pearl River Delta.Generally,cities further from the Pearl River Delta exhibit lower export sophistication.Trade protection drives urban export upgrades.Empirical evidence indicates that trade protection enhances urban innovation and reduces the diversification of exports,thus elevating export sophistication.Compared to regions in non-Pearl River Delta region,trade protection more significantly promotes export upgrading within Pearl River Delta cities,thereby widening regional disparities.Industrial agglomeration intensifies the positive effects of trade protection,aiding export upgrading in non-Pearl River Delta region at the regional level,and toward developed countries at the destination country level.This research underscores the importance of leveraging industrial agglomeration to bolster targeted innovation and to refine the structure of export products and markets as pivotal measures for fostering export upgrading under trade protection.

关 键 词：出口升级 出口技术复杂度 贸易保护 产业集聚 广东 珠三角 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]