劳动力市场的“疤痕效应”及其治理  

Scarring Effect in Labor Market and Its Governance

作　　者：安苑[1] 冯嘉恩 蓝紫苑 An Yuan;Feng Jiaen;Lan Ziyuan

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院 [2]中山大学国际金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2024年第9期104-117,共14页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“制造业资源配置‘清理效应’的识别及其财政支出约束机制研究”(17CJL010)的资助。

摘　　要：本文通过匹配微观劳动力数据和宏观经济数据,对劳动力市场的“疤痕效应”进行识别。实证分析发现,经济衰退期时首次进入劳动力市场的个体,其当期收入比经济繁荣期时首次进入的个体低大约7个百分点,首次工作年的宏观经济增长率每降低1个百分点,大约使个体调查期的收入降低2个百分点,这一影响在工作以后10年内均显著存在且保持稳定,个体间收入差距的持续存在,表明劳动力市场存在显著的“疤痕效应”。异质性分析表明,男性、大专及以上学历个体、非农户籍个体和体制外就业个体受到初始经济状况的影响更大。机制分析表明,个体主要因工作调整机会受限而使初始经济状况对其职业生涯产生长期影响。同时,政府的就业保障制度和市场化水平的提升双向缓解了上述效应。这意味着,无论是就个体福利还是国家的共同富裕目标而言,保持短期的经济增长率稳定,目前依然具有重要的现实意义。Matching the micro data from labor market and macro data of economic growth,the paper identifies the scarring effect in Chinese labor market.The result of the empirical analysis shows that,the individuals who first enter labor market in a recession in-stead of boom period suffer a 7 percent income loss compared with those who enter in a boom,and with a one percent decrease of the macro economic growth in individual's graduation year,the current individual income will lower about two percent.The effect lasts for ten years and keeps constant during the time span,showing that the scarring effect of labor market exists.The result of the hetero-geneity analysis shows that,the male individual,the individual with a college degree or higher,with a non-agriculture Hukou,work-ing out of the system,is hit more terribly by the initial macroeconomic condition.The key mechanism lies in that,the initial econom-ic condition plays a longtime lasting effect through individual's opportunity of job adjustment.Meanwhile,both marketization and employment protection institution by government play a role to alleviate the above effect.The findings of the paper means,no matter for individual welfare or the nation's common prosperity target,it is meaningful at present to keep a stable short-term economic growth rate.

关 键 词：经济增长率 个体收入 疤痕效应 收入差距 

分 类 号：F240[经济管理—劳动经济]