考虑碳市场风险的热电联产虚拟电厂低碳调度  

Low-carbon scheduling of CHP virtual power plant considering carbon market risk

作　　者：王秋杰 亓浩[1,2] 谭洪 王昊 朱益[1,2] 汪平 李振兴 WANG Qiujie;QI Hao;TAN Hong;WANG Hao;ZHU Yi;WANG Ping;LI Zhenxing(Hubei Key Laboratory of Cascaded Hydropower Stations Operation&Control,Yichang 443000,China;College of Electrical and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443000 [2]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2024年第10期8-15,共8页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52307109)。

摘　　要：燃煤热电机组“以热定电”的运行模式会导致新能源消纳能力不足,且运行过程中会产生过高碳排放。为此,建立了考虑地源热泵、电转气(P2G)和碳捕集与封存(CCS)的热电联产虚拟电厂模型,并提出了基于碳市场风险的虚拟电厂低碳调度策略。利用自回归滑动平均模型及广义自回归条件异方差模型预测碳市场的次日碳价,并用条件风险价值模型衡量其波动风险;引入电制热设备地源热泵,协同P2G-CCS解耦热电联产“以热定电”运行约束;提出以各设备的运行成本、弃风弃光惩罚成本、碳交易及碳市场风险成本之和最小为目标函数的优化调度策略。算例结果表明:所提调度策略不仅能促进新能源消纳,提高经济效益,还可以降低系统碳排放。The heat-determined-power operation mode of coal-fired thermoelectric units will lead to insuffi⁃cient absorption of new energy and produce excessive carbon emissions during operation.Therefore,a com⁃bined heat and power(CHP)virtual power plant model considering ground-source heat pump,power to gas(P2G)and carbon capture and storage(CCS)is established,and a low-carbon scheduling strategy for virtual power plant based on carbon market risk is proposed.The following-day carbon price of carbon market is predicted by using autoregressive moving average model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroske⁃dasticity model,and its fluctuation risk is measured by conditional value at risk model.The ground-source heat pump of electric heating equipment is introduced,and the heat-determined-power operation constraint of CHP is decoupled by the collaboration of P2G-CCS.An optimal scheduling strategy is proposed with the minimum sum of the operation cost of each equipment,the penalty cost of wind and photovoltaic abandon⁃ment and the risk cost of carbon trading and carbon market as the objective function.The example results show that the proposed scheduling strategy can not only promote the consumption of new energy and improve the economic benefits,but also reduce the carbon emission of the system.

关 键 词：热电联产 虚拟电厂 地源热泵 P2G CCS 自回归滑动平均模型 广义自回归条件异方差模型 条件风险价值 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]