基于ISM和SEM模型的吉林省农户土地规模经营风险与防范对策  

Land scale management risks and prevention strategies of farmers in Jilin Province based on ISM and SEM model

作　　者：王祥贺 邱红 杜松林 WANG Xianghe;QIU Hong;DU Songlin(College of Tourism and Geographic Sciences,Boda College of Jilin Normal University,Siping Jilin 136000)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学博达学院旅游与地理科学学院,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《辽宁师专学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期87-98,共12页Journal of Liaoning Normal College(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：2024年四平市哲学社会科学规划项目(SPSK24138);2024年四平市哲学社会科学规划项目(SPSK24044)。

摘　　要：揭示农地规模经营风险形成机理以及风险间关系,以便为农地规模经营风险防范和治理提供依据.通过问卷调查,采用解释结构模型(ISM)和结构方程模型(SEM)对吉林省农地规模经营风险及其形成机理定量评价和分析.解释结构模型(ISM)结果表明,农户土地规模经营各风险之间以层级的形式相互作用,随着层级的升高,危险等级也不断升高,自然风险F1、市场风险F2及技术风险F3是土地规模经营中所面临的最基本的风险;结构方程模型(SEM)结果表明,各风险因素之间存在联系,不同风险事件对风险因素的影响不同,水旱灾害事件S3、农产品市场信息不对称的风险事件S12、农民技能培训不到位的风险事件S15、农户社会保障不到位的风险事件S23等分别对自然风险F1、市场风险F2、技术风险F3影响较大.对此,提出了吉林省农户土地规模经营风险防范建议:加强配套设施建设,建立长效风险预警系统;加强农产品市场监管,拓宽销售渠道;注重农业人才引进,加强农业技术创新与应用;完善社会保障,防范社会风险;充分发挥政府职能,积极宣传土地规模经营政策;加强规模经营者风险意识,提高抵御风险能力等.The mechanism of risk formation and the relationship between risks in agricultural land scale management were revealed in order to provide a basis for risk prevention and governance in agricultural land scale management.Through a questionnaire survey,the Interpretative Structural Model(ISM)and Structural Equation Model(SEM)were adopted to quantitatively evaluate and analyze the risks and formation mechanisms of agricultural land scale management in Jilin Province.The Interpretative Structural Model(ISM)results indicate that the various risks of land scale management among farmers interact in a hierarchical form,as the level increases,the risk level also increases continuously.Natural risk F1,market risk F2and technical risk F3are the most basic risks faced in land scale management.The results of Structural Equation Modeling(SEM)indicate that there is a connection between various risk factors,and different risk events have different impacts on risk factors.The risk events S3of water and drought disasters,S12of information asymmetry in agricultural product markets,S15of inadequate skill training for farmers,and S23of inadequate social security for farmers have a significant impact on natural risk F1,market risk F2,and technical risk F3,respectively.In this regard,some suggestions on farmers′land scale management risk preventions in JiLin province were proposed to strengthen the construction of supporting facilities and establish a long-term risk warning system;to strengthen market supervision of agricultural products and expand sales channels;to pay attention to the introduction of agricultural talents and strengthen agricultural technology innovation and application;to improve social security and prevent social risks;to fully exert government functions and actively promote land scale management policies;to strengthen risk awareness of scale operators and improve the ability to resist risks.

关 键 词：农地规模经营 风险防范 解释结构模型 结构方程模型 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]