边攻击策略下自建房火灾风险网络中边重要性及风险度研究  

Research on the Importance and Risk Degree of Edges in Self-build Housing Fire Risk Network under Edge Attack Strategy

作　　者：邢艳冬 孟文静 周建亮 张明星 刘亚楠 XING Yandong;MENG Wenjing;ZHOU Jianliang;ZHANG Mingxing;LIU Yanan(School of Architecture and Engineering,Huangshan University,Huangshan 245041,China;School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou 412007,China;Xuzhou Design Institute of China Railway,Shanghai Design Institute Group,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]黄山学院建筑工程学院,安徽黄山245041 [2]中国矿业大学力学与土木工程学院,江苏徐州221116 [3]湖南工业大学城市与环境学院,湖南株洲412007 [4]中铁上海设计院集团有限公司徐州设计院,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《灾害学》2024年第4期33-39,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于用户画像的建筑工人差异化不安全行为智能态势感知与个性化矫正研究”(72171224);安徽省检察理论研究课题(WJ202317)。

摘　　要：为了减少我国自建房火灾的发生,基于事故致因“2-4”模型分析自建房火灾事故案例,编码得到48个风险因素及事件和128条风险传递关系;利用复杂网络理论构建自建房火灾风险网络拓扑结构模型,分析网络连边的权重和介数特征;通过单边和累积边攻击策略仿真分析,得到三种网络脆弱性评价指标的变化,分析网络的脆弱性;引入边风险度评价模型,分析连边风险度,并提出风险度前6位连边的断链措施。结果表明:单边攻击策略下移除边“缺乏消防安全常识→消防安全意识淡薄”和边“业主未落实消防安全主体责任→未制定消防安全管理制度”时,网络的连通度和全局网络效率明显降低;累积边攻击策略下蓄意边介数攻击时,网络表现出较高的脆弱性,边介数排序靠前的连边较为重要,是网络中的关键链路,可以依据边介数和边风险度从不同方面指导自建房消防安全管理。In order to reduce the occurrence of self-build housing fires in China,the accident cause"2-4"model(24Model)is used to analyze self-build housing fire accident cases,and 48 risk factors and events,transmission relationships,are encoded.A topology structure model of self-build housing fire risk netwaosr kw eisll caosn 1st2r8u crtiesdk bTyh rouusignhg scimomulpalteioxn n aentwaloyrski s thofe ournyi,latearnadl athttea cwk esigtrhatt eagnieds baentdw eceunmnuelsast ivceh aerdagcete raitsttaiccks sotfr anteegtwieosr,k ethdeg ecsh aanreg easn ianl ytzherde.e rneeltawtiovrek svizueln oefr athbeil imtya xeivmaluumat iwoena iknldyi ccaotnonres,ctenda smueblgyr athpeh,relaantidv en estiwzeo rokf ethffei cmieanxciym,umar es torobntagilny ecdo nunnedcetre ddi fsfuebregnrat pehd,ge tahte‐itsa cikn tsrotrdautecgeide,s.Tthhee evduglen erriaskb iilsit ya noaf ltyhzee dn,etwaonrdk cihs aainna blyrzeeadk,inga nmde akseuyr elisn akrse a prero opbotsaeidn efdo.r Athne etodpg e6 r iesdkg eass soefs srimske.ntT mheo dree‐l swuelatsk sfhiroew s atfheatty uanwdaerre ntheses"u nainladt eerdagl ea twtaitchk"sotwranteerg yfa,iluthree troe mimopvlaelm oef netd fgiree wsaitfhe ty"lmacaki no fr efsirpeo nssaifbeitlyi tyk nleoawdleindgg eto l efaaidluinrge ttoo dWehveelno pu sfiinreg tshaefe itnyt emnatinoangael matetnact ks(ysetedmge"bceatnw eseingnniefsics)an sttlrya treegdyu cine tnheet wcuormku claotnivnee cetdivgiet ya tatancdk gsltorbaatel gnye,twtohrek neeftfwicoirekn chya.s hwiogrhk.vIutl nise rpaobsisliibtyl,e toa ngdu itdhee tehdeg feisr ew siathfe htyig mhearn aegdegme ebnett woef esnenlfe-sbsu rialdn khionugs ainreg mfroomre dimiffpeorertnatn at sapnedc tasr eb akseeyd loinnk tsh ein e tdhgee nbeet‐‐tweenness and the edge risk degree,providing reference for the fire safety management of self-build housing.

关 键 词：自建房火灾 复杂网络 边攻击 关键链路 脆弱性 风险度 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X43X915.5