缅甸2011年以来的对华策略:对冲还是平衡?  

Myanmar's China Strategy since 201l:Hedging or Balancing?

作　　者：刘务 宋丹丹 Liu Wu;Song Dandan

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心 [2]云南财经大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2024年第3期125-154,159,160,共32页South Asian Studies

基　　金：2023年国家社科基金一般项目“缅甸政局发展趋势及我国对策研究”(项目批准号:23BGJ056)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2011年以来,缅甸充分利用其重要的地缘政治小国身份在新的地缘政治格局中不断调整与大国和邻国的关系.本文在就平衡与对冲策略进行概念界定和比较的基础上,从策略目标、策略表现、形态倾向及对冲强度四个维度就2011年以来缅甸对华策略选择进行分析并发现,只用对冲或平衡策略来解释该时期缅甸的对华政策并不全面.同时,在大国竞争、地缘政治、国家内部脆弱性及中立主义外交传统等因素的共同作用下,2011年以来缅甸历届政府的对华政策均有所调整,呈现对冲与平衡双重策略周期性摇摆的特征.吴登盛政府和民盟执政时期的缅甸对华政策波动较大,策略选择分别表现为对冲主导下的平衡和平衡主导下的对冲.2021年军方接管国家权力后,缅甸国家管理委员会面临着对外关系严重恶化的局面,策略选择主要表现为对冲与平衡有限兼顾的双重策略.Since 2011,Myanmar has fully leveraged its important geopolitical position as a small state to shift its relations with major powers and neighboring countries vis-a-vis an evolving geo-political situation.After completingg a conceptual articulation and comparison of hedging and balancing strategies,this article goes on to analyze Myanmar's policy choices in terms of balancing and hedging vis-a-vis China from 2011 to present along four dimensions:strategic objectives,strategic actions,behavioral trends and hedging intensity.It finds that balancing and hedging strategies alone do not fully explain Myanmar's policy towards China during this period.Influenced by factors such as great power competition,geopolitical dynamics,internal vulnerabilities,and a tradition of neutrality in diplomacy,subsequent Myanmar governments since 2011 have modified their policies toward China,displaying a cyclic oscillation between hedging and balancing strategies.During the Thein Sein and NLD government periods,Myanmar's policies towards China fluctuated significantly,with policy choices shifting between one of balancing under a dominant hedging strategy and hedging under a dominant balancing strategy.After the military took power in 2021,Myanmar's State Administrative Council faced a serious deterioration in its external relations,prompting it to opt for a dual strategy of hedging and balancing.

关 键 词：缅甸外交 对冲 平衡外交 中缅关系 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F133.7