广西工业品出口贸易隐含碳变化及其驱动效应研究  

Research on Embodied Carbon in Guangxi’s Export Trade and Its Driving Effects

作　　者：令狐大智[1] 李逸明 张露曦 武新丽[3] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学工商管理学院 [2]广西大学经济学院 [3]广西大学广西高校统计与管理交叉科学重点实验室

出　　处：《广西经济》2024年第4期82-96,共15页GUANGXI ECONOMY

基　　金：广西哲学社会科学研究课题一般项目(23BGJ001);广西大学应用经济学学科交叉科研项目(2023JJJXA02);广西发展战略研究院课题(2020GDSIYB08)。

摘　　要：文章基于投入产出矩阵GRAS调整方法和投入产出模型对2005—2020年广西工业品出口贸易中的隐含碳进行测算,并利用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)分析隐含碳驱动效应。研究发现:广西碳排放总量、工业品出口额和隐含碳排放量整体呈增长趋势,但增速差异明显。2013—2020年,碳排放总量趋于平稳且增速减缓,但工业品出口额及隐含碳排放量增长显著。碳排放总量下降和碳排放系数减小与广西能源消费结构优化有显著关联,但出口规模扩大是隐含碳排放量增长的主要原因,而出口结构、中间投入品排放水平和直接碳排放系数对隐含碳起排放抑制作用。进一步分析发现,规模效应在隐含碳排放中持续发挥促进作用,结构效应和技术效应影响程度次之且呈“U”形作用特点;受产业能耗和科技水平影响,三效应对各部门隐含碳排放变化存在当期关键驱动因素、潜在关键驱动因素的差异,且驱动效用差别显著。基于此,文章提出应积极推进从“能耗双控”向“碳排双控”的制度转变,持续推动重点领域减排降耗,提升全产业链低碳能力;优化能源生产和消费结构,提升能源使用效率;加大技术投入力度,优化产业结构,合理调控部门的规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,推进出口结构升级;综合协调多种政策,加强政策激励及监管等建议。This paper calculates the embodied carbon in Guangxi’s industrial exports from 2005 to 2020 using the input-output matrix GRAS adjustment method and input-output model.Additionally,the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)method is utilized to analyze the driving effects of embodied carbon.The study reveals that while the overall trends in Guangxi’s total carbon emissions,industrial export scale,and embodied carbon have shown growth,there are noticeable disparities.Since 2013,the total carbon emissions have stabilized and the growth rate has decreased,but the industrial exports and embodied carbon have significantly increased.The reduction in total carbon emissions and carbon emission coefficients is significantly associated with the optimization of Guangxi’s energy consumption structure.However,export scale is the primary factor for the growth of embodied carbon,while export structure,intermediate input emission levels,and direct carbon emission coefficients have inhibitory effects on embodied carbon.The scale effect consistently promotes embodied carbon emissions,with technology and structure effects being secondary and showing a“U”shaped pattern.Influenced by industrial energy consumption and technological level,the three effects differ significantly in their impact on departmental embodied carbon emissions.Consequently,the study suggests actively promoting the institutional transformation from“dual control of energy consumption”to“dual control of carbon emissions”,continuously advancing emission reduction and consumption optimization in key sectors,focusing on enhancing the entire industrial chain capabilities;optimizing energy production and consumption structures,increasing investment in and introduction of clean energy,and improving energy efficiency;increasing technological investments,optimizing industrial structure,and reasonably regulating the scale,structure,and technology effects of departments to promote export structure upgrading;and comprehensively coordinating various policies,st

关 键 词：出口隐含碳 驱动效应 投入产出 中间投入品 碳排放系数 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]