最优开采路径下我国铜矿资源经济价值评估:基于需求增长和生态补偿双重视角  

Economic value assessment of copper resources in China under the optimal mining path:based on the dual perspectives of demand growth and ecological compensation

作　　者：张周益 成金华 宋益 ZHANG Zhouyi;CHENG Jinhua;SONG Yi(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China;Business School,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430078 [2]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国矿业》2024年第10期32-43,共12页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理政策研究”资助(编号:71991482);国家自然科学基金青年项目“全产业链技术创新对清洁能源关键金属可持续供应的影响机制及保障对策研究”资助(编号:72204236);国家自然科学基金青年项目“大国竞争背景下战略性关键矿产全产业链韧性提升机制及保障对策研究”资助(编号:72304255)。

摘　　要：需求增长和生态补偿对矿产资源经济价值的影响不容忽视,而传统评估模型无法有效地将这些外生因素考虑进来,这可能会导致评估结果偏误。为弥补这一缺陷,本文通过耦合矿产资源开发Hotelling模型和传统折现现金流模型构建了一个动态折现现金流模型,采用该模型从需求增长和生态补偿双重视角出发对我国铜矿资源经济价值展开评估,进一步深入探索了其对经济价值的具体影响。研究结果发现由于动态折现现金流模型遵循着资源最优开采路径,其评估价值略高于传统评估模型;生态补偿机制更有利于资源的可持续开发利用,但降低了资源的经济价值;考虑需求增长后我国铜矿资源最优开采路径呈“倒U型”,并提高了其经济价值;综合来看,需求增长带来的价值增加远大于生态补偿机制造成的价值减少。本文研究不仅丰富了矿产资源经济价值评估理论和方法,还为我国铜矿资源的合理开发利用提供了参考。The impact of demand growth and ecological compensation on the economic value of mineral resources cannot be ignored,and traditional evaluation models cannot effectively consider these exogenous factors,which may lead to biased evaluation results.To compensate for this deficiency,this paper constructs a dynamic discounted cash flow model by coupling the Hotelling model and the traditional discounted cash flow model.This model evaluates the economic value of copper resources in China from the dual perspectives of demand growth and ecological compensation,and further explores their specific impacts on economic value.The research results find that due to the dynamic discounted cash flow model following the optimal mining path,its evaluation value is slightly higher than that of traditional evaluation models.The ecological compensation mechanism is more conducive to the sustainable utilization of resources,but it reduces the economic value.After considering the increase in demand,the optimal mining path for copper resources in China presents an inverted U-shape,which enhances their economic value.Overall,the value increase brought by demand growth is far greater than the value reduction caused by ecological compensation mechanisms.This study not only enriches the theory and methods of economic value assessment of mineral resources,but also provides reference for the rational development and utilization of copper resources in China.

关 键 词：矿产资源经济价值评估 动态折现现金流模型 最优开采路径 需求增长 生态补偿 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程] F407.1[经济管理—产业经济]