基于GTAP模型的中缅印度洋新通道贸易效应研究  

A Study on the Trade Effects of the China-Myanmar Indian Ocean New Corridor Based on the GTAP Model

作　　者：胡颖[1] 陈洁筠 HU Ying;CHEN Jieyun(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China;Paula and Gregory Chow Institute For Studies in Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,昆明650504 [2]厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院,厦门361000

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2024年第10期89-110,共22页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：云南省社会科学规划社会智库重点项目“跨国铁路推动滇中城市群与口岸城市‘岸腹联动’发展路径与对策研究”(SHZK2024202);云南省中青年学术和技术带头人后备人才项目“中国-中南半岛跨境物流网络重构与区域经济一体化”(202405AC350109);云南省省院省校教育合作人文社会科学研究项目“国际大通道沿线供应链提质增效研究”。

摘　　要：中国-缅甸-印度洋海公铁联运新通道,是从中国西南地区打通印度洋出海通道的必经之路,其发展与“一带一路”孟中印缅经济走廊建设和中国西部沿边开放紧密关联。从贸易网络、贸易依赖度、竞争性和互补性等方面探究通道开通后沿线国家和地区间贸易规模、贸易结构和贸易壁垒的变动,揭示了沿线国家和地区贸易关系的特征和动态变化。根据运输成本对贸易的传导机制,采用GTAP模型,模拟预测中缅印度洋新通道在部分联通、全线贯通和路网形成三种不同情景下产生的贸易效应。研究发现:中缅印度洋新通道的开通将直接刺激沿线地区贸易规模增长,贸易条件显著改善,中国、缅甸和印度等国实际GDP和社会福利水平显著提升;随着物流成本下降和贸易网络深化,新通道促进贸易从高成本的域外地区向低成本的域内地区转移,重构区内贸易格局;新通道的开通将有利于推动中国与周边国家和地区形成产业链互补,促进区域经济一体化发展。The China-Myanmar Indian Ocean New Corridor is the only maritime access route from China’s southwestern region to the Indian Ocean.Its development is closely linked to the construction of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor under the“Belt and Road Initiative”,as well as the opening up of China’s southwestern border regions.This paper examines the changes of trade volumes,structures and barriers among countries and regions along the corridor from the perspectives of trade networks,dependencies,competitiveness and complementarities upon the inauguration of the corridor,indicating the characteristics and dynamics of the trade relationships among the countries and regions.Utilizing the Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model and based on the transmission mechanism of transportation costs to trade,the research simulates and predicts the trade effects of the China-Myanmar Indian Ocean New Corridor under three scenarios:partial connection,full connection,and network formation.The findings indicate that the opening of the corridor will directly stimulate the increase of trade volume in regions along the corridor,with significantly changes in trade conditions,and the real GDP and societal welfare of China,Myanmar and India have been greatly improved.With the reduction of logistics costs and the intensification of trade networks,the new corridor promotes trade transfers from high-cost outside the region to low-cost inside the region,restructuring the intra-regional trade patterns.The opening of the new corridor will promote industrial chain complementarities between China and neighboring countries and regions,as well as the development of regional economic integration.

关 键 词：中缅印度洋新通道 贸易效应 全球贸易分析(GTAP)模型 

分 类 号：F41[经济管理—产业经济]